%0 Journal Article
%T Markov Chain Analysis of Manpower Data of a Nigerian University
%A A.C. Igboanugo
%A M.K. Onifade
%J Journal of Innovative Research in Engineering and Sciences
%D 2011
%I Global Research Publishing
%X The revolving door policy upon which the appointment of Vice-Chancellors of the Nigerian Universities is set appears to hasten the onset of dissonance and discontinuity in the general institutional arrangements and polity. Moreover, little effort appears to have been made to characterize manpower flow in relation to the manpower policies driving such system in order to ascertain if they are congruent with the raison d¡¯¨ºtre of the institutions. This study, which is an applied research, seeks to use the Markovian statistical tool to unravel the dynamics of staff stock and flow in a typical first generation Nigerian University with the ultimate intent of lucidly describing the existing manpower policy and pointing to its future direction. A forty-year data of staff transition within the six well defined states space, were transformed into frequency distributions which was ultimately used to estimate the transition probability matrix (TPM) that substantiated into a valued diagraph. Our research findings clearly suggest that about 47% of newly recruited staff exit the employment system through normal retirement while a disturbing 53% leave by either voluntary withdrawal or wastage. Possible attributions, or factors to blame, for this high attrition rate is principally staff seeking and discovering greener pastures, and disciplinary cases. The conclusion thereof is that, overall, in view of the favourable staff development programme, the existing manpower policy can be described as liberal and firm, and above all is tilted towards prime pumping capacity building. The research outcome, which is a strategic imperative for Nigerian universities, provides game-changing solutions and practical guides needful to align manpower policies to corporate goals.
%K staff stock
%K habituation decomposable
%K valued diagraph ergodic chain.
%U http://www.grpjournal.org/download/Markov%20Chain%20Analysis%20of%20Manpower%20Data%20of%20a%20Nigerian%20University.aspx