%0 Journal Article
%T Application of BET_EF at Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)
%A Alfonso Brancato
%A Stefano Gresta
%A Salvatore Alparone
%A Daniele Andronico
%J Annals of Geophysics
%D 2011
%I Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
%R 10.4401/ag-5346
%X Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ¡®precursor¡¯ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.
%K 04.08.02 Experimental volcanism
%K 04.08.06 Volcano monitoring
%K 04.08.08 Volcanic risk
%K 05.01.04 Statistical analysis
%K 05.02.05 Collections.
%U http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5346