%0 Journal Article
%T A maximum temperature forecasting method for the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul Un m谷todo de pron車stico de temperatura m芍xima para la ciudad de Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul
%A Natalia Fedorova
%A M. H. de Carvalho
%A V. Levit
%A B. C. Marcelino
%J Meteorologica
%D 2005
%I Centro Argentino de Meteor車logos
%X Forecasting maximum temperature is very important for the population. In order to offer a way of forecasting this temperature, a method was adapted and tested based on the height of the layer with a dry adiabatic lapse rate. The database was formed over a period of three years: 1998, 1999 and 2000. Determination and correlation coefficients were calculated in order to verify the method validity. Also, several statistical characteristics were determined and the observed and forecasted maximum temperature series were compared. The results show that the method tested is a good one, at least for the region of Pelotas. La predicci車n de la temperatura m芍xima es muy importante para la poblaci車n. Con el objeto de ofrecer un m谷todo de prever esta temperatura, fue adaptado y testado un m谷todo que es basado en la altura de la capa con gradiente vertical adiab芍tico seco. La base de datos consisti車 de tres a os: 1998, 1999 y 2000. Los coeficientes de determinaci車n y de correlaci車n fueran determinados y las dos series, temperatura m芍xima observada y temperatura m芍xima prevista, fueron comparadas. Los resultados muestran que el m谷todo testado es bueno, al menos, para la regi車n de Pelotas.
%K Temperatura m芍xima
%K Pron車stico del tiempo
%K Capa l赤mite
%K Maximum temperature
%K Weather forecasting
%K Boundary layer
%U http://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1850-468X2005000100006