%0 Journal Article
%T A Simpler Method for Predicting Weight Loss in the First Year after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass
%A John P. Sczepaniak
%A Milton L. Owens
%A William Garner
%A Farouk Dako
%A Kristin Masukawa
%A Samuel E. Wilson
%J Journal of Obesity
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/195251
%X Factors postulated to predict weight loss after gastric bypass surgery, include race, age, gender, technique, height, and initial weight. This paper contained 1551 gastric bypass patients (85.9% female). Operations were performed by one surgeon (MLO) at community hospitals in Southern California from 1989 to 2008 with 314 being laparoscopic and 1237 open. We created the following equation: In[percent weight] =2£¿, where  was the time after operation (days) and  and  are constants. Analysis was completed on R-software. The model fits with 2 value 0.93 and gives patients a realistic mean target weight with a confidence interval of 95% for the first year. Conclusion. We created a curve predicting weight loss after surgery as a percentage of initial weight. Initial weight was the single most important predictor of weight loss after surgery. Other recorded variables accounted for less than 1% of variability. Unknown factors account for the remaining 6-7%.
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jobes/2012/195251/