%0 Journal Article
%T Simplicity within complexity: Seasonality and predictability of hospital admissions in the province of Ontario 1988¨C2001, a population-based analysis
%A Ross EG Upshur
%A Rahim Moineddin
%A Eric Crighton
%A Lori Kiefer
%A Muhammad Mamdani
%J BMC Health Services Research
%D 2005
%I BioMed Central
%R 10.1186/1472-6963-5-13
%X This study employed time series methods on a population based retrospective cohort of for the fifty two most common causes of hospital admissions in the province of Ontario from 1988¨C2001. Seasonal patterns were assessed by spectral analysis and autoregressive methods. Predictive models were fit with regression techniques.The results show that 33 of the 52 most common admission diagnoses are moderately or strongly seasonal in occurrence; 96.5% of the predicted values were within the 95% confidence interval, with 37 series having all values within the 95% confidence interval.The study shows that hospital admissions have systematic patterns that can be understood and predicted with reasonable accuracy. These findings have implications for understanding disease etiology and health care policy and planning.Health care is a complex human endeavor constituted by the interaction of multiple professions, organizations, industries, technologies and the public. Health itself is also a complex concept, with multiple determinants including genetic, socio-cultural, economic and environmental influences [1]. At the centre of this complex system is the hospital. Arguably, after a physician visit, the hospital admission represents the key event in the delivery of health care.Do hospital admissions have consistent patterns? While individual diseases are extensively studied, there is a paucity of systematic approaches to the study of health care events. Epidemiology is not regarded as a science with the predictive accuracy and explanatory power of the physical sciences [2]. Health services research is in its scientific infancy and is directed towards policy and practice, however, recent trends in theoretical epidemiology have focused on more powerful computational approaches [3].Using time series analysis, our research program investigates seasonality in the occurrence of health care events. Seasonality is an important aspect of disease manifestation as well as a clue to the etiology
%U http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6963/5/13