%0 Journal Article
%T Has David Howden Vindicated Richard von Mises¡¯s Definition of Probability?
%A Mark R. Crovelli
%J Libertarian Papers
%D 2009
%I Ludwig von Mises Institute
%X In my recent article on these pages (Crovelli 2009) I argued that members of the Austrian School of economics have adopted and defended a faulty definition of probability. I argued that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon the nature of the world in which we live. I claimed that if the nature of the world is such that every event and phenomenon which occurs has a cause of some sort, then probability must be defined subjectively; that is, ¡°as a measure of our uncertainty about the likelihood of occurrence of some event or phenomenon, based upon evidence that need not derive solely from past frequencies of ¡®collectives¡¯ or ¡®classes.¡¯¡± I further claimed that the nature of the world is indeed such that all events and phenomena have prior causes, and that this fact compels us to adopt a subjective definition of probability.David Howden has recently published what he claims is a refutation of my argument in his article ¡°Single Trial Probability Applications: Can Subjectivity Evade Frequency Limitations¡± (Howden 2009). Unfortunately, Mr. Howden appears to not have understood my argument, and his purported refutation of my subjective definition consequently amounts to nothing more than a concatenation of confused and fallacious ideas that are completely irrelevant to my argument. David Howden has thus failed in his attempt to vindicate Richard von Mises¡¯s definition of probability.
%K libertarianism
%K probability theory
%U http://libertarianpapers.org/2009/44-crovelli-david-howden-probability/