%0 Journal Article
%T A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics
%A Raffaele Vardavas
%A Romulus Breban
%A Sally Blower
%J BMC Research Notes
%D 2010
%I BioMed Central
%R 10.1186/1756-0500-3-92
%X To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics.Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.Influenza is the lead cause of death from a vaccine-preventable disease in the United States (US). Although about 80% of the US population is specifically recommended for annual influenza vaccination, less than 40% of the population usually gets vaccinated [1]. Despite the rising vaccination rates in recent years, these still fall short of Healthy People 2010 objectives [2,3]. Hopes are that the introduction of a new vaccine offering long-term protection over many years would lead to a significantly increase in the vaccination coverage. Recently, the possibility of developing such universal flu vaccines has become more tangible than ever before [4,5]. In early 2008, Acambis of Cambridge, Massachusetts (now Sanofi Pasteur) reported positive results for a phase 1 clinical trial of a universal vaccine [6]. Independently that same year, a group at Oxford, England, led by Dr. Gilbert started a phase 1 clinical trial of another universal flu vaccine that would provide protection for at least 5-10 years after which a booster will be required [7]. More recently, lab-made proteins have been identified which would allow the vaccine to neutralize a broad range of influenza
%U http://www.biomedcentral.com/1756-0500/3/92