%0 Journal Article
%T THE EXPANSION OF DISTANCE LEARNING (DL) IN BRAZILIAN HIGHER EDUCATION: TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT DECADE A EXPANS O DA EDUCA  O A DIST NCIA (EAD) NO ENSINO SUPERIOR BRASILEIRO: TEND¨ºNCIAS PARA O IN¨ªCIO DA PR¨®XIMA D¨¦CADA
%A Leandro Jos¨¦ Morilhas
%J Future Studies Research Journal : Trends and Strategies
%D 2009
%I Funda??o Instituto de Administra??o
%R 10.7444/future.v1i1.4
%X In this article, the expansion of distance learning (DL) in Brazil¡¯s Higher Education is analyzed with a view to addressing the following research query: How many schools, in Brazil, will offer undergraduate studies in the DL mode over the next five years? To this effect, bibliographical data was researched and historical series of variables were compiled ¨C number of schools, of courses and of enrolled students, among other elements ¨C to generate comparative graphs between the in loco (classroom) and the distance modes. Thus, the evolution of both types during the period studied is presented. Furthermore, a simple linear regression was used to correlate the variables ¡®number of institutions¡¯ and ¡®time¡¯, in order to extrapolate growth trends for the 2007-2011 period. Results point to a sharp expansion of DL, in all studied variables, and indicate that this may increase even further in the future. It also became evident that the growth of distance learning will have to overcome certain challenges, including better access to computers and to the Internet and the development of qualified personnel and of specific software to deal with it. Key words: Distance learning. Distance education. Extrapolation of trends and linear regression. Future studies. Neste artigo, analisa-se a expans o da Educa  o a Distancia (EAD) no Ensino Superior Brasileiro com o objetivo de responder a seguinte quest o de pesquisa: Qual o n¨²mero de escolas que ofertar¨¢ gradua  o na modalidade Educa  o a Distancia (EAD), no Brasil, nos pr¨®ximos cinco anos? Para tanto, levantou-se dados bibliogr¨¢ficos e criou-se s¨¦ries hist¨®ricas de vari¨¢veis - n¨²mero de escolas, de cursos, de alunos matriculados, entre outros - que geraram gr¨¢ficos comparativos entre as modalidades presencial e a distancia. Dessa forma, apresenta-se a evolu  o de ambas as modalidades ao longo do per¨ªodo estudado. Al¨¦m disso, utilizou-se a regress o linear simples para correlacionar as vari¨¢veis ¡°n¨²mero de institui  es¡± e ¡°tempo¡±, visando extrapolar as tend¨ºncias de crescimento no per¨ªodo compreendido entre 2007 e 2011. Os resultados demonstram uma acelerada expans o da EAD, em todas as vari¨¢veis estudadas, indicando que esta pode aumentar ainda mais nos pr¨®ximos anos. Tamb¨¦m se constatou que a expans o do ensino a distancia precisar¨¢ superar alguns desafios como, por exemplo, o aumento do acesso a computadores e Internet, e o desenvolvimento de m o de obra qualificada e softwares espec¨ªficos. Palavras-chave: Ensino a Distancia. Extrapola  o de tend¨ºncias e regress o linear. Estudos do Futuro.
%U http://www.revistafuture.org/index.php/FSRJ/article/view/4