%0 Journal Article
%T A mathematical model for the burden of diabetes and its complications
%A A Boutayeb
%A EH Twizell
%A K Achouayb
%A A Chetouani
%J BioMedical Engineering OnLine
%D 2004
%I BioMed Central
%R 10.1186/1475-925x-3-20
%X In the present paper, ordinary differential equations and numerical approximations are used to monitor the size of populations of diabetes with and without complications.Different scenarios are discussed according to a set of parameters and the dynamical evolution of the population from the stage of diabetes to the stage of diabetes with complications is clearly illustrated.The model shows how efficient and cost-effective strategies can be obtained by acting on diabetes incidence and/or controlling the evolution to the stage of complications.It is now commonly admitted that diabetes is sweeping the globe as a silent epidemic largely contributing to the growing burden of non-communicable diseases and mainly encouraged by decreasing levels of activity and increasing prevalence of obesity. The recent reports released by the World Health Organization [1] and the International Diabetes Federation [2] are alarming. In 2003, it was estimated that 194 million people were diabetic, representing a global prevalence exceeding 3% (5.1% for those aged 20 to 79) of the world population. The trend is increasing and the number is expected to reach 333 million (6.3%) by the year 2025. Moreover, for the first time, an estimation of 314 million (8.2%) is given for people in the pre-diabetic stage which constitutes a compartment from which at least one third will evolve to the diabetic stage after 10 years.Dramatic increase have occurred in both prevalence and incidence of diabetes globally, especially with the new threshold proposed by the Expert Committee on the diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus in 1997 [3] and adopted by the World Health Organization. But it is worth noting the growing part of developing countries as stressed by many authors [4-6] and summarized in Table 1 for the ten leading countries [2]. In general, two forms of diabetes are considered: Type 1 diabetes, also known as Insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (IDDM), affecting people under the age of 40
%U http://www.biomedical-engineering-online.com/content/3/1/20