%0 Journal Article
%T Forecast of the Carbon Emission Intensity and Analysis of Coal Energy’s Proportion in China<br>中国碳排放强度预测与煤炭能源比重检验分析
%A LIU Guangwei
%A ZHAO Tao
%A MI Guofang
%A <br>刘广为
%A 赵涛
%A 米国芳
%J 资源科学
%D 2012
%I 
%X As the largest developing country in the world, China has attracted the attentions of the world for carbon emission problem. The research on carbon emission has become a new hot spot all over the world. As for this study, firstly, we discussed the research situation of influence factors of carbon emission intensity and then systematically summarized the present situation of carbon emission forecast study both at home and at abroad. After discussing the derivation process of the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model (DDEPM) and comparing it with the present prediction methods, we found that the DDEPM has great superiority. Therefore, based on the DDEPM, the Matlab programming and the data of carbon emission and GDP during 1980-2009, this paper has forecasted the data of carbon emission and GDP in 2020. At the same time, by calculating we found that there is great potential to reduce the carbon emission intensity. In addition, the paper has analyzed the impact of China’s situation of taking coal as the main energy on the carbon emission intensity based on the Vector Autoregression model (VAR) and the proportion of coal consumption. After that, we integrated the carbon emission intensity, the prediction data of the proportion of coal consumption and the actual data and then dealt with the integration data by VAR model. Through comparing the integration data model with the actual data model, we got the conclusion that the two models are similar to each other. We also checked the accuracy of DDEPM prediction in terms of the variation law. At last, we have analyzed the correlation between carbon emission intensity and the proportion of coal consumption by applying the Impulse Response Function.
%K Carbon emission intensity
%K DDEPM
%K Proportion of coal consumption
%K VAR
%K Impulse response function<br>碳排放强度
%K DDEPM
%K 煤炭能源比重
%K VAR
%K 脉冲响应函数
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=759CCD45607BE0D945E51F11BE4C2F50&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=339D79302DF62549&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=2E4E3741E8FB64E9&eid=F4C2D192FB73A21F&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=19