%0 Journal Article
%T A Review on Methods of Solar Energy Forecasting and Its Application<br>太阳能预报方法及其应用和问题
%A MA Jinyu
%A LUO Yong
%A SHEN Yanbo
%A LI Shikui
%A <br>马金玉
%A 罗勇
%A 申彦波
%A 李世奎
%J 资源科学
%D 2011
%I 
%X Solar forecasting, consisting of solar radiation forecasting and photovoltaic solar power forecasting, is important for photovoltaic power generation systems in network operation. In recent years, with the development of the solar industry, the demand for solar energy forecasting is increasing. Solar energy prediction methods have been developed in developed country. Our solar photovoltaic technology research is, however, at a primary stage, with only a few universities and institutes conducting simulation-based research, little of which accounts for meteorological factors. According to predicted solar physical factors, the prediction can be generally divided into two categories. One is to predict solar radiation which requires the calculation of photovoltaic power according to the output photoelectric conversion efficiency. The other is direct prediction of output power of PV systems. As the domestic forecast on solar energy technologies and applications are rarely reported, mechanisms of solar forecasting, methods and applications in photovoltaic power generation were reviewed based on the demand for photovoltaic applications. This review would provide an important basis for domestic solar photovoltaic power generation development. This paper focuses on the situations of solar energy prediction at home and abroad, and summarizes the principles of solar energy forecasting and prediction methods. Among them, solar radiation prediction methods involve traditional statistics, neural networks, satellite remote sensing, as well as numerical simulation methods. The photovoltaic power generation forecast method is mainly statistical. Based on the application of photovoltaic power generation needs, different advantages and disadvantages of some forecasting methods were analyzed. Meanwhile, a series of problems in further research on solar forecasting techniques and its domestic development were investigated. The main method is the combination of satellite data, model predictions, meteorological observations data, statistical extrapolation methods, and the neural network. But the numerical weather model seems to be difficult to forecast. The solar forecasting technology includes model results, satellite data, and ground observations.
%K Solar forecasting methods
%K Photovoltaic power generation
%K Solar radiation<br>太阳能预报方法
%K 光伏发电
%K 太阳辐射
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=06C7C93B318D5331F1B911985F48C402&yid=9377ED8094509821&vid=27746BCEEE58E9DC&iid=94C357A881DFC066&sid=C81F81170838C444&eid=2C8B50BA95995EA2&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=48