%0 Journal Article
%T An Evaluation and Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China<br>中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析
%A JIANG Jinhe
%A <br>蒋金荷
%J 资源科学
%D 2011
%I 
%X Evaluation of carbon emissions is essential to studying carbon related issues. This paper provides an evaluation method of CO2 emissions at different levels in terms of different properties of energy consumption and available statistical data at national, regional, and industrial levels. A CO2 emission series at the three levels was obtained. It is concluded that: 1) the current economic development pertains to high-carbon economy due to the economic structure and economic development pattern; 2) the proportion of CO2 of the whole industry accounted for 85% of the total CO2 emission in China. In general, the carbon intensity in industries decreased, but slowly increased in the transportation sector. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model (LMDI), which is the complete decomposition of carbon emissions with the decomposition residual item of zero, was used to perform quantitative analysis of changes in CO2 emissions and percentages of contributors for China during the period 1995-2007. Four effects resulted in changes in CO2 emissions, including economic scale, industrial structure, energy intensity or energy efficiency, and carbon intensity. The results of carbon decomposition show that contributors of the four effects to changes in CO2 emissions were different. For example, the most significant factor contributing to increases in CO2 emissions during the study period was due to economic development, followed by the change in the industrial structure and energy structure or carbon intensity. The decrease in energy intensity would lead to carbon emission reductions, but the increase in CO2 emissions during the decade was definitely caused by economic growth, and the change in economic structure and energy structure. Improvement in energy intensity has a positive effect on carbon emissions. Results also show that the four effects were not the same for different periods of time. The energy intensity decrease and economic development were the major reasons for increases in CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2000. However, the economic development could take up as large as 85.8% of all increases in CO2 emissions during the period 2002-2007. As for the explanation of the four effects, the proportion of the high-carbon emission industry became increasingly significant during recent years, e.g., the proportion of industry and transportation sectors increased and CO2 emissions of the two sectors also increased in terms of the current development pattern. The ratio of clean energy to energy consumption was rather small, e.g., the proportion of renewable energy to primary energy consumption was less than 9% in 2007. These conclusions would be helpful for formulating economic policies to address energy development measurement in the future.
%K Carbon emissions
%K Decomposition analysis
%K LMDI
%K Energy efficiency
%K economic growth
%K Carbon intensity
%K China<br>碳排放量
%K 分解分析
%K Divisia指数法
%K 能源效率
%K 经济增长
%K 碳排放强度
%K 中国
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=1B50A551D16DD5491B02632A1FABFBBB&yid=9377ED8094509821&vid=27746BCEEE58E9DC&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=0A8675156EB60B87&eid=1A0C7C60D40EFD74&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=4&reference_num=5