%0 Journal Article
%T Impacts of Climate Change and Fluctuations on Flows into the Longyangxia Reservoir<br>气候变化与波动对龙羊峡流量的影响及未来趋势的预估
%A SHEN Hongyan
%A LI Lin
%A CHEN Xiaoguang
%A DAI Sheng
%A WANG Zhenyu
%A LIU Caihong
%A <br>申红艳
%A 李 林
%A 陈晓光
%A 戴 升
%A 王振宇
%A 刘彩虹
%J 资源科学
%D 2010
%I 
%X In this paper, characteristics of surface water resources and climate over the Longyangxia Reservoir areas, lying in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, were analyzed using meteorological and flow observations, with examining the feedbacks and interactions between water resources and climate. It was found that temperature, precipitation and evaporation have a great influence on the flows into the reservoir. First, there is generally negative correlation between temperature and flow. Flows in spring respond rapidly to temperature variations. There is a significant effect of the maximum temperature on flows in spring and summer. Flows in autumn showed an apparent positive response to the minimum temperature in summer and autumn. Second, precipitation in summer has the most significant impact on the flows, which lasted by autumn. Flows in autumn have the most marked response to precipitation. Flows in winter have an apparent response to precipitation in the last summer. Third, the correlation between evaporation and flows was found not obvious compared with the precipitation. Only flows in autumn were observed to be sensitive to contemporaneous evaporation and annual evaporation. Annual evaporation and mean annual flow showed weak positive correlation. In general, variations in precipitation and temperature jointly affect the flows into the reservoir in the arid and semi-arid region. On the basis of above analyses, a prediction model of the flows into the reservoir was established. Parameters of the model were tuned satisfactorily in order to reliably estimate the flows into the reservoir. Meanwhile, it was indicated that climate change is the most primary factor affecting the flows into the reservoir. In terms of future climate scenarios provided by means of the down-scaling climate model, the flows under different emission scenarios were predicted. Results showed that the mean flows into the reservoir will increase in the 2010s and 2020s compared with the baseline specified from 1988 to 2008. Under different emission scenarios, the flows show obvious differences due to the combined effect of changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation. The flows would increase by 6.3% and 6.1% in the 2010s and 2020s, respectively, under the A2 scenario, and by 20.0% and 10.7% in the 2010s and 2020s under the B2 scenario. Therefore, benefits of the effects of climate change on the flows into the Longyangxia Reservoir generally outweigh potential damages to the irrigated areas, but with large uncertainty in the predictions.
%K Climate change
%K Flow
%K Impacts
%K Prediction
%K Longyangxia Reservoir<br>气候变化
%K 流量
%K 影响
%K 趋势预估
%K 龙羊峡
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=8137B1C3A86130E9FC253D82E146D620&yid=140ECF96957D60B2&vid=9971A5E270697F23&iid=5D311CA918CA9A03&sid=F3699C8B183A53ED&eid=DEEC1AC3B6D3EB96&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=1&reference_num=21