%0 Journal Article
%T Strategic Environmental Assessment of Virtual Water Based on Scenario Analysis for Hebei Province, China<br>基于情景分析的河北省虚拟水战略环境影响评价
%A LIU Mei
%A XU Xinyi
%A WANG Hongrui
%A WANG Feng
%A <br>刘梅
%A 许新宜
%A 王红瑞
%A 王峰
%J 资源科学
%D 2012
%I 
%X Hebei sustains a large number of virtual water outputs with scarce water resources and this places pressure on water resources and ecosystems. A virtual water strategy provides a new way to effectively alleviate water resource stress by using the comparative advantages of regional production and adjusting regional industrial structure. In order to prevent adverse effects when developing new strategies it is necessary to carry out environmental impact assessments. Considering food import and industrial structure adjustment, four different scenario were established: scenario A, import 20% of local food production; scenario B, import 40% of local food production; scenario C (steady development), the proportions of three industries are 10.3%, 48.7% and 41% in 2015, and 8.2%, 45.8% and 46% in 2020; and scenario D (rapid development), the proportion of three industries is 9.4%, 45.6%, and 45% in 2015, and 8%, 42%, and 50% in 2020. The effect of the virtual water strategy on the ecological environment, water consumption and economic and social environment is calculated and discussed based on scenario analysis. Our results show that food import reduces local agricultural water consumption, and this water could be used for forestation. Food imports effect crops or organisms reliant on high water consumption crops. The implementation of a virtual water strategy requires that grains are purchased to relieve water supply pressures, which results in financial loss to some extent. As far as small-scale production is concerned, food imports may discourage peasants to grow food, and even cause as food safety and social safety issues. In conclusion, virtual water strategies may have a positive and negative influence on the ecological, economic and social environment. Scenario B and C can return 8.76 million ha of farmland to forest and grassland in 2015, which is an appropriate strategy with a positive effect on ecological environment.
%K Virtual water trade
%K Virtual water strategy
%K Strategic environmental assessment
%K Scenario analysis<br>虚拟水贸易
%K 虚拟水战略
%K 战略环境影响评价
%K 情景分析
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=DC0994A58AFB6AE9F0E14BD72C4CE06B&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=339D79302DF62549&iid=59906B3B2830C2C5&sid=0927C49686EB88E9&eid=BB9EE916CDC6128E&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=24