%0 Journal Article
%T Analysis of Water Deficit Risk in Shanghai Caused by Salt Intrusion by Extreme Value Statistics<br>咸潮作用下上海水资源风险极值统计分析
%A LUO Yi
%A TAN Lirong
%A WANG Jun
%A <br>罗艺
%A 谭丽蓉
%A 王军
%J 资源科学
%D 2010
%I 
%X Chenhang and Qingcaosha Reservoirs are faced with the risk of fresh water deficit as a result of brackish water sources when salt water intrusion from the Yangtze Estuary. Examining its mechanism is of vital importance to sustainable development of Shanghai Municipality. Based on the conception of hazard and disaster risk, the authors investigated the annual exceedance probabilistic distribution of fresh water resource risk of the two reservoirs. Annual extreme failure times of fresh water intake of the reservoirs from the Yangtze Estuary were investigated by the extreme value statistics in order to highlight the extreme hazard risk. Data on fresh water intake failure time were utilized to examine the correlation between Datong discharge and extreme failure time of fresh water intake in the Yangtze Estuary. By taking the extreme failure time of fresh water intake and the daily water supply as two risk factors, the deficit risks of the Chenhang and Qingcaosha Reservoirs in water supply were explored by the Monte Carlo simulation method. Results demonstrated that annual exceedance probabilistic distribution of extreme water intake failure time from the Yangtze Estuary can generally be categorized as the Gumbel-II (Frechet) distribution. The fitting results of fresh water intake failure time for Chenhang and Qingcaosha Reservoirs by extreme value statistics showed that the possibility of fresh water intake failure time more than 35 days and 70 days is relatively low. It was also found that the maximum failure time of fresh water intake of Qingcaosha Reservoir is 68 days by Shanghai Water Authority, which means that the situation of fresh water intake failure time more than 68 days would rarely happen. The fitting results of Qingcaosha Reservoir are essentially consistent with that from the Shanghai Water Authority. The maximum annual water deficit probability of Chenhang Reservoir could be more than 80%, while that of Qingcaosha Reservoir is less than 3%. Results from the Monte Carlo simulation are basically accordant with practical operation of Chenhang Reservoir during the period 2004-2009. If the reservoir was required to be sustained under the condition of the fresh water intake failure time of 68 days, the annual maximum water deficit of Qingcaosha Reservoir shows a significantly low probability due to a huge capacity. However, the water resource risk of Qingcaosha Reservoir could be higher than that of Chenhang Reservoir under catastrophic events with a probability less than 1%.
%K Water resource
%K Risk
%K Salt intrusion
%K Extreme value statistics<br>水资源
%K 风险
%K 盐水入侵
%K 极值统计
%K 上海市
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=1BB76887177B443297AB6617951738AB&yid=140ECF96957D60B2&vid=9971A5E270697F23&iid=B31275AF3241DB2D&sid=01A9864A3FFB986F&eid=F61A98B4CFAD5F2A&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=1&reference_num=18