%0 Journal Article
%T The Persistence of Precipitation Series and the Trend of Drought in Northern Agro-pastoral Zone<br>北方农牧交错区降水过程的持续性特征与干旱发生趋势
%A LIU Tong
%A HUANG Heqing
%A YAN Huimin
%A JIA Jing
%A <br>刘瞳
%A 黄河清
%A 闫慧敏
%A 贾静
%J 资源科学
%D 2012
%I 
%X The environment is extremely fragile in the central region of the northern agro-pastoral zone. There were obvious temperature increase and frequent drought over the past 50 years, which have profound and harsh effects on ecosystem and the livelihood of farmers and herdsman. Knowing the persistent characteristics of precipitation series in this region is of great importance to the forecast of future disaster and policy adjustment. With the combination of time series anomaly analysis method and rescaled range analysis method based on fractal theory, this paper has expounded the precipitation change process and its persistent characteristics with data of 6 stations in the central region of the northern agro-pastoral zone from 1956 to 2009. The results show that, in the past 54 years, the annual precipitation was overall in a continuously decreasing trend; the inter-annual variations curve of summer precipitation was similar with the variations curve of annual precipitation, but the spring precipitation had slight increase; On 1-year and 5-year time-scales, the variations of annual and seasonal precipitation were all in a severely fluctuant situation. Remarkably, on 5-year time-scale, the average value of Hurst index for the whole area is much closer to 1.0 than that on 1-year time-scale, that is, the auto-correlativity and persistence enhance obviously along with the increase of the time-scale. On the ten-year time-scale, the low precipitation period when the anomaly is negative will last for 10 years, while the low precipitation period of spring will last for 20-30 years. In order to deal with the drought effectively,we need to adjust both agriculture and animal husbandry in agro-pastoral zone. It is necessary to reduce agricultural irrigation water, adjust the planting structure and way in agriculture, solve problems of livestock drinking water, strengthen the raising management, enhance the crisis awareness of farmers and herdsmen and keep improving their ability to adapt to the disaster.
%K Agro-pastoral Zone
%K Persistence of precipitation
%K Drought
%K Time scale
%K Hurst index<br>农牧交错带
%K 降水持续性
%K 干旱Hurst指数
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=880EC029A8F2442ED00061010C91A3C8&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=339D79302DF62549&iid=94C357A881DFC066&sid=2BCD2FED7562E194&eid=3005465426CC5B70&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=12