%0 Journal Article
%T Trends in Runoff Variations of the Mainstream of the Tarim River during the Last 50 Years<br>1957年至2005年塔里木河干流径流变化趋势分析
%A ZHAO Ruifeng
%A CHEN Yaning
%A LI Weihong
%A CHEN Zhongsheng
%A HAO Xingming
%A <br>赵锐锋
%A 陈亚宁
%A 李卫红
%A 陈忠升
%A 郝兴明
%J 资源科学
%D 2010
%I 
%X The Tarim River is the longest continental river in China. In the past 50 years, global climate change and increasingly extensive human activities have greatly altered the water cycle, inducing a series of environmental problems in the Tarim River basin. The paper aims at examining the runoff time series in the mainstream, forecasting the future trends and offering some meaningful and constructive suggestions for rational management and allocation of water resources in the Tarim River basin. The trend of the runoff time series during 1957-2005 were analyzed using the nonparametric test and R/S methods. The sharp points of runoff were detected by the Mann-Kendall test and sliding t-test based on streamflows observed at four hydrological stations, i.e., Alar, Xinqiman, Yingbaza and Qiala in the mainstream of the Tarim River. Results suggested that the annual runoff showed a significantly decreasing trend, more prominent at the lower reaches than that at the upper reaches over the past 50 years. The decreasing trend of runoff would be more significant in the future. The inter-decadal average runoff increased to varying degrees compared to the former decade at the four hydrological stations except Yingbaza, with increasing river volume in headstream since the 21st century. The mainstream of the Tarim River, under the influence of large-scale irrigated areas of the three source tributaries, lost the intra-annual distribution characteristics of natural runoff. The intra-annual distribution of runoff was influenced greatly by anthropogenic activities, and mainly concentrated in summer (June to August), accounting for above 50% of the annual runoff. The sharp points of runoff were found to be in 1972, 1972, 1973 and 1972 in Alar, Xinqiman, Yingbaza and Qiala hydrological station, respectively, following the basic process from upper to lower reaches along the mainstream except the Qiala station. The characteristics of annual runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River were predominantly affected by the uncertainty of river volume in the headstream and increasingly extensive human activities at the headstream and mainstream as well as climate change. For the sake of sustainable social and economic development of the basin in the future, a comprehensive management of water resources should be implemented in the Tarim River watershed.
%K 径流量
%K 变化趋势
%K 突变点
%K 塔里木河干流
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=A94E54FE65BC9AC240FEA234152B8BAD&yid=140ECF96957D60B2&vid=9971A5E270697F23&iid=B31275AF3241DB2D&sid=D7FC8AF637611368&eid=9E33BE6F309BC209&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=1&reference_num=17