%0 Journal Article
%T Forecasting the Balance between Occupation and Complementarity of Cultivated Land by Provinces in China<br>中国各省耕地数量占补平衡趋势预测
%A ZHANG Lin
%A ZHANG Feng-rong
%A XUE Yong-sen
%A YAN Liang-zheng
%A <br>张琳
%A 张凤荣
%A 薛永森
%A 严良政
%J 资源科学
%D 2007
%I 
%X In recent years,the quantity of cultivated land in China has declined rapidly during the process of economic development.In order to solve the increasing problems of cultivated land resource shortage and food security,a land management policy of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land has been implemented in China since 1996.In 1998,the policy of cultivated land's occupation and supplement balance was issued through the Land Law of the People's Republic of China(1998 Revision).Undoubtedly,this policy played an important role in cultivated land protection.In the next few years or decades,cultivated land will be occupied continuously with the economic growth,and the unused land resources in China are very limited,so the perspective of this policy implementation needs to be studied and forecasted.Based on such an idea,this paper analyzed the relationship between cultivated land occupation and economic growth during the past nine years,And Forecasted the balance of cultivated land occupation and complementarity in different regions based on the potential supply of cultivated land resources.The results revealed: 1) Cultivated land occupation was varied strongly in different regions and has close relationships with economic growth. Shandong Province has the highest annual average of cultivated land occupation, and Tibet Autonomous Region has the lowest annual average of cultivated land occupation,which is 1.07% of Shandong Province;2) Furthermore,the trend of cultivated land occupation has been extrapolated and predicted through three models, the results showed that Zhejiang Province will can't implement the balance of cultivated land in 2010,Beijing City,Shanghai City,Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province will can't implement the balance of cultivated land in 2015;3) in the case of current average speed of the cultivated land occupation,the cost of unused land cultivation are not considered,and the potential supply of uncultivated land can only make up for the occupation for 39 years.In addition,the unused land resources that can be cultivated will be exhausted in 10 years in half of the provinces.
%K Cultivated land
%K Occupation and supplement balance
%K Province
%K Forecast<br>耕地
%K 占补平衡
%K 各省
%K 预测
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=D3A034ABF9EE7D1A60CD1F675724C135&yid=A732AF04DDA03BB3&vid=771469D9D58C34FF&iid=B31275AF3241DB2D&sid=DDD31293A7C7D057&eid=EFD65B51496FB200&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=12