%0 Journal Article
%T Factors Affecting Fertilizer Demand and Supply in China<br>中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析——Ⅰ化肥供应
%A ZHANG Wei-feng
%A JI Yue-xiu
%A MA Ji
%A WANG Yan-feng
%A MA Wen-qi
%A ZHANG Fu-suo
%A <br>张卫峰
%A 季玥秀
%A 马骥
%A 王雁峰
%A 马文奇
%A 张福锁
%J 资源科学
%D 2007
%I 
%X The consumption of chemical fertilizer has five characters.The fertilizer demands is driven by the food demand with the population growth,can be replaced by other materials,independent on agricultural planting structure,affected by agricultural technology and varies in different countries.Multiple characters determine various factors that can affect its demand,in which the supply is the most important factor.This feature has been witnessed obviously in China. The fertilizer consumption in China was constrained by fertilizer supply since the funding of the people's republic of China in 1949.The weak resources base and outdated technology of fertilizer industry in China resulted in the insufficient supply and low-level consumption until the 1990s.In recent years,with the development of exploitation of resources and improvement of manufacturing technology,the fertilizer output and product structure have changed significantly.The self-sufficient nitrogen fertilizer has exceeded 100% and that of phosphate fertilizer got 94% in 2005.More and more categories of fertilizers,which are difficult to be decomposed such as ABC and SSP have been replaced by prone-decomposed ones such as Urea and Di-Ammonium Phosphate.The fertilizer consumption has increased greatly accompanied by the industrial development.It is forecasted that,in the next years,the fertilizer supply would be decided by demand,and the unbalanced supply and demand situation in different regions will emerge and would aggravate when the raw materials for fertilizer production are depleted and their prices are growing higher.It is proved the duration of some key raw materials are lower than 50 years in which the high grade phosphate rock can only be used in next ten years.It is forecasted that the fertilizer industry would be transferred to some regions with abundant natural resources,and more than 50% of the provinces are short of fertilizer supply.And the fertilizer products structure would be changed further from difficult decomposed ones to prone decomposed ones.It is forecasted that the increase of production of N,P2O5 and K2O would be 6,3 and 1 million tones respectively from 2006 to 2010.All of the changes would induce the further changes on fertilizer consumption.Although the price of fertilizer has been growing in recent years,the price flexibility decreased to less than 1 that means the fertilizer demand is inelastic to the changes of fertilizer price.In a word,the effectiveness of fertilizer supply in fertilizer consumption is becoming feeble.Therefore,we should to improve the fertilizer industry by using fertilizer reasonably in the future.
%K China
%K Fertilizer
%K Consumption
%K Driving forces
%K Fertilizer industry<br>中国
%K 化肥
%K 消费
%K 驱动因素
%K 化肥工业
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=B5EDD921F3D863E289B22F36E70174A7007B5F5E43D63598017D41BB67247657&cid=B47B31F6349F979B&jid=9DEEAF23637E6E9539AD99BE6ABAB2B3&aid=D3A034ABF9EE7D1A3C83FC9407470A6B&yid=A732AF04DDA03BB3&vid=771469D9D58C34FF&iid=B31275AF3241DB2D&sid=F1177A9DF1349B63&eid=954CE65414DD94CA&journal_id=1007-7588&journal_name=资源科学&referenced_num=0&reference_num=25