%0 Journal Article
%T Application of adaptive single-exponent smoothing for short-term traffic flow prediction<br>自适应单指数平滑法在短期交通流预测中的应用
%A QI Chi
%A HOU Zhong-sheng
%A <br>齐驰
%A 侯忠生
%J 控制理论与应用
%D 2012
%I 
%X Short-term traffic flow prediction is a key technique to realize the transportation planning and management. Because of the simple calculation and the small number of observation data, the exponential smoothing is extensively applied as an important forecast method. However, in the traditional method, there is no theoretical method for selecting the smoothing coefficient. We propose an adaptive single-exponent smoothing approach to optimize the smoothing coefficient automatically based on the approximate dynamic programming. With rigorous analysis, it is shown that the proposed prediction scheme guarantees the convergence. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
%K short-term traffic flow prediction
%K adaptive single-exponent Smoothing
%K approximate dynamic programming<br>短时交通流预测
%K 自适应单指数平滑法
%K 近似动态规划方法
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=5B3AB970F71A803DEACDC0559115BFCF0A068CD97DD29835&cid=8240383F08CE46C8B05036380D75B607&jid=970898A57DFC021F93AB51667BAED7F7&aid=1D1ECD0B64DA3640B1DB072A80AAFDF1&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=771469D9D58C34FF&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=BC88D6B0750E09D1&eid=8F2250DA83AF77B8&journal_id=1000-8152&journal_name=控制理论与应用&referenced_num=0&reference_num=0