%0 Journal Article
%T Forecasting network security threat situation based on ARIMA model<br>基于ARIMA模型的网络安全威胁态势预测方法
%A LI Kai
%A CAO Yang
%A <br>李　凯
%A 曹　阳
%J 计算机应用研究
%D 2012
%I 
%X In order to solving the difficulty of forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation. The paper proposed a forecasting method based on the ARIMA model, which made use of the data of network security threat situation having the feature of time series. Firstly, this method analysed the information of services, leaks, and vulnerabilities and so on which were related to the network security. After this, the paper computed the network security threat situation reasonably. Based on that, forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation used a ARIMA model. The experiment results show that this method not only can reflect the true variation trend of network security threat situation, but also its prediction accuracy is higher.
%K network security threat situation
%K situation forecasting
%K ARIMA model<br>网络安全威胁态势
%K 态势预测
%K ARIMA模型
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=5B3AB970F71A803DEACDC0559115BFCF0A068CD97DD29835&cid=8240383F08CE46C8B05036380D75B607&jid=A9D9BE08CDC44144BE8B5685705D3AED&aid=E82D2154DD923E6E60228C8A3711BD8D&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=771469D9D58C34FF&iid=5D311CA918CA9A03&sid=8F55D4E7EF9641F1&eid=3CC0ACD922E90F44&journal_id=1001-3695&journal_name=计算机应用研究&referenced_num=0&reference_num=20