%0 Journal Article
%T Nonlinear analysis of runoff change and climate factors in the headstream of Keriya River, Xinjiang<br>新疆克里雅河源流区径流变化与气候因子关系的非线性分析
%A LING Hong-bo
%A XU Hai-liang
%A ZHANG Qing-qing
%A <br>凌红波
%A 徐海量
%A 张青青
%J 地理研究
%D 2012
%I 
%X Based on the data observed of the temperature,precipitation and annual runoff at the Langan Hydrological Station of the Keriya River from 1957 to 2009,the paper studied the change trend and multi-time scale correlation between the annual runoff and climatic factors by using methods of wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.The results are shown as follows.(1) There is a positive correlation among the annual runoff,temperature and precipitation,which have the significant increasing trends;with R/S analysis,these increasing trends are likely to continue in the coming 50 years.(2) The interannual variations of runoff,temperature and precipitation present a cycle of 9 years,and the decadal variations of annual runoff have a 15-year cycle owing to different periods of temperature and precipitation.Besides,there would be different abrupt changes of the runoff,temperature and precipitation in the coming 20 years.(3) There are significant nonlinear correlations among the annual runoff,temperature and precipitation in the headstream of Keriya River.In addition,annual runoff change is due to the combined effects of temperature and precipitation.
%K Keriya River
%K runoff
%K climate change
%K nonlinear
%K wavelet analysis<br>克里雅河
%K 径流
%K 气候变化
%K 非线性
%K 小波分析
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=869B153A4C6B5B85&jid=C0C75E88BA2EE501C8298896F64A711F&aid=21CB0722CA48644FE6D6C56C54F674AC&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=4AD960B5AD2D111A&iid=94C357A881DFC066&sid=1471D37D8144EBCF&eid=4AB2A4AB67F2B16E&journal_id=1000-0585&journal_name=地理研究&referenced_num=0&reference_num=0