%0 Journal Article
%T Global-scale Modeling of Future Changes in Sown Areas for Major Crops Based on a Logit Model<br>基于Logit 模型的世界主要作物播种面积变化模拟
%A WU Wenbin
%A YANG Peng
%A TAN Guoxin
%A ZOU Jinqiu
%A SHIBASAKI Ryosuke
%A TANG Huajun
%A <br>吴文斌
%A 杨鹏
%A 谈国新
%A 邹金秋
%A 柴崎亮介
%A 唐华俊
%J 地理学报
%D 2007
%I 
%X Potential dynamics of agricultural crop sown area has attracted a wide range of attention from numerous researchers due to its ecological and socio-economic implications. This paper describes a method to develop and implement an integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of the world's major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) at a global scale. The general hypothesis of this study is that crop sown area change is directly linked with farmer decisions on crop choice, and what kind of crop to be cultivated is highly dependent on the random utility of available crops. The modeling approach is based on a crop choice model, which is a Multinomial Logit Model and used to model farmer crop choice decisions among a variety of available alternatives by using an optimization approach. The assessment of model performance by comparing model estimates with FAO statistical data (2001-2003) and MODIS land cover product (2001) indicates its reliability and dignity for addressing the complicated dynamic change of agricultural land use change at present and capability for long-term scenario investigation and applications for the future. From model simulation for crop sown area change during 2005-2035 in different regions in the world, global potential cropping patterns of major crops can be interpreted. Moreover, the results present that the change rates and trajectories of crops in different regions show a great variation over time and space. This study is an attempt of detecting future sown area change at a global level by using a simplified approach along with some assumptions. Although some uncertainty remains in the model, the outcomes can help to understand and explain the causes, locations, consequences and trajectories of land-use change, and provide a great support service for land-use planning and policy-making activities.
%K agricultural crop sown area
%K dynamic change
%K simulation
%K Logit model
%K crop choice
%K global scale<br>作物播种面积
%K 动态变化
%K 模拟
%K Logit模型
%K 作物选择
%K 世界
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=869B153A4C6B5B85&jid=F7B5B947C24B9D649491012214E4BEF4&aid=BCFE3A0BCB62114F&yid=A732AF04DDA03BB3&vid=95D537AC89B28832&iid=B31275AF3241DB2D&sid=4081E94A71AB3C30&eid=4720E9D07E8A2290&journal_id=0375-5444&journal_name=地理学报&referenced_num=1&reference_num=32