%0 Journal Article
%T ON BASIC STATE OF PRESENT-DAY CRUSTAL MOVEMENT DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY<br>现今地壳运动动力学基本状态与地震可预报性研究
%A Zhou Shuoyu
%A Wu Yun
%A Shi Shunying
%A Yao Yunsheng
%A <br>周硕愚
%A 吴 云
%A 施顺英
%A 姚运生
%J 大地测量与地球动力学
%D 2007
%I 
%X Applying self-organized theory of complex dynamics system,we have synthetically studied the observational results of present-day crustal movement from contemporary geodesy(GPS and earthquake crustal deformation)in recent 40 years.Because of "fixed point attractor","limit cycle attractor","tons attractor" and "strange attractor" dominating the dynamics system,present-day crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as "stable state(dynamic balancing state)","period state","quasi-period state","chaos state" and "edge of chaos".The observation results show that not only plate,block,boundary zone,fault zone but also speed field,stress field all over present the accordance of present-day crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole.After transient state process(earthquake,etc)having occurred,present-day crustal movement(the changing process with time,the space distribution and the structure of spectrum)will return to "stable steady state(dynamic balancing state)" voluntarily.The observation results prove that the"fixed point attractor " exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at "stable steady state"(dynamic balancing state),"self-organized stability".But Self-organized criticality(SOC)is a kind of weak chaos nature:"edge of chaos"(non-stable steady state),appearing only in the specific space-time region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.
%K crustal movement
%K dynamics of complex system
%K self-organized stability
%K self-organized criticality
%K earthquake prediction<br>地壳运动
%K 复杂系统动力学
%K 自组织稳定态
%K 自组织临界态
%K 地震预报
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=DA72A78627FE64EAA572951EA05D274A&jid=73A1A428591E600EF664B596512A2997&aid=87D073552A1DC366&yid=A732AF04DDA03BB3&vid=DB817633AA4F79B9&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=08805F9252973BA4&eid=A4FA325EA800C820&journal_id=1671-5942&journal_name=大地测量与地球动力学&referenced_num=2&reference_num=23