%0 Journal Article
%T The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times
%A LU Ri-Yu
%A LI Chao-Fan
%A Se-Hwan YANG
%A Buwen DONG
%A <br>LU Ri-Yu
%A LI Chao-Fan
%A Se-Hwan YANG
%A Buwen DONG
%J 大气和海洋科学快报
%D 2012
%I 
%X Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.
%K seasonal forecast
%K leading month
%K Western North Pacific
%K coupled models
%K ENSEMBLES<br>seasonal
%K forecast
%K leading
%K month
%K Western
%K North
%K Pacific
%K coupled
%K models
%K ENSEMBLES
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=28A2F569B2458C17&jid=DFA1C03CBD38122A6831EBC757FD100F&aid=649CF1A01F52D5715B349B5302BA4561&yid=99E9153A83D4CB11&vid=94C357A881DFC066&iid=38B194292C032A66&sid=D5C73DEF4CF8FAF3&eid=A1266CF37D675CF1&journal_id=1674-2834&journal_name=大气和海洋科学快报&referenced_num=0&reference_num=0