%0 Journal Article
%T Statistical Reconstruction of the Antarctic Oscillation Index Based on Multiple Proxies<br>基于多种代用资料的南极涛动指数重建
%A ZHANG Zi-Yin
%A GONG Dao-Yi
%A HE Xue-Zhao
%A LEI Yang-Na
%A FENG Sheng-Hui
%A <br>ZHANG Zi-Yin
%A GONG Dao-Yi
%A HE Xue-Zhao
%A LEI Yang-N
%A FENG Sheng-Hui
%J 大气和海洋科学快报
%D 2010
%I 
%X Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (< 50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957-89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500-1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r2, RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ~460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal timescales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ~2.4, ~2.6, ~6.3, ~24.1, and ~37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.
%K Antarctic Oscillation
%K reconstruction
%K proxy
%K interannual and interdecadal variability<br>
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=28A2F569B2458C17&jid=DFA1C03CBD38122A6831EBC757FD100F&aid=80AA26E8080DFB38A554CD9A38219470&yid=140ECF96957D60B2&vid=38B194292C032A66&iid=94C357A881DFC066&sid=E2B9962CCD971A0D&eid=EBD6B792C9111B87&journal_id=1674-2834&journal_name=大气和海洋科学快报&referenced_num=0&reference_num=0