%0 Journal Article
%T Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data
%A Hiroshi Nishiura
%J International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
%D 2010
%I MDPI AG
%R 10.3390/ijerph7010291
%X The basic reproduction number, R 0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R 0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R 0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R 0 using a spreadsheet.
%K transmission
%K infectious diseases
%K basic reproduction number
%K epidemiology
%K statistical model
%K estimation techniques
%K HIV
%K AIDS
%U http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/7/1/291