%0 Journal Article
%T Impacts of climate change on water resource vulnerability in Laizhou Bay region<br>气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响
%A DENG Hui-ping
%A ZHAO Ming-hua
%A <br>邓慧平
%A 赵明华
%J 自然资源学报
%D 2001
%I 
%X Laizhou Bay region is located in the north castal zone of Shandong Province,China.In this region,water is scarcy and has already bocome the most important constraint for the region's economic development. In this paper, impacts of climate change (1960～2042) on water vulnerability are investigated. The results are as followes: (1)According to the capacity of water supply system in 1993, in 1960～1976 wet climate(mean precipitation is 112% of the normal climate), effective water supply is 120% of the normal. While in 1977～1993 dry climate(mean precipitation is 88% of the normal climate), effective water supply is 78% of the normal. At water demand level in 1993(about half of the irrigation water demand is met), in wet climate, water supply and-demand balance is surplus, but it changes to be deficit when in dry climate. Water resource vulnerability increases from marginally vulnerable level to vulnerable level.(2)Based on future climate senarios in North China, 2000～2019 mean precipitation will be 110% of the normal precipitation. According to the capacity of water supply system and at the water demand level in 2000, water supply approximately meets water demand if about half of the irrigation water demand is met. Water resource vulnerability is marginally vulnerable. 2020～2042 mean precipitation will drop to the normal level. In the light of the planned capacity of water supply system and at the predicted water demand level in 2020, water suppy-and-demand balance is deficit when onlg half of the irrigation water demand is met. Water resource vulnerability will rise to vulnerable level.(3)After 2042, precipitation may drop to less than the normal level with temperature 1℃ higher than normal climate, water resource deficit will be more serious even if water demand is still at 2020 level. So it is necessary to import more amount of stable water than present planned from outside region in order to guarantee sustainable socioeconomic development.
%K climate change
%K water resource impacts
%K vulnerability<br>气候变化
%K 水资源
%K 脆弱性
%K 莱州湾地区
%K 供水能力
%K 需水要求
%K 供需平衡
%K 气候影响
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=3FF3ABA7486768130C3FF830376F43B398E0C97F0FF2DD53&cid=A7CA601309F5FED03C078BCE383971DC&jid=4DCB9A3AF3395AF0101DE5302EF3C300&aid=798535B75DBE2A6F&yid=14E7EF987E4155E6&vid=7801E6FC5AE9020C&iid=CA4FD0336C81A37A&sid=9CF7A0430CBB2DFD&eid=23CCDDCD68FFCC2F&journal_id=1000-3037&journal_name=自然资源学报&referenced_num=7&reference_num=9