%0 Journal Article
%T Application of Uncertainty-Set Pair Analysis for Sandstorm Forecast in Northwest of China<br>不确定性理论集对分析在沙尘暴预报中的应用研究
%A WANG Fan-qiang
%A GUO Da-mei
%A <br>王繁强
%A 郭大梅
%J 中国沙漠
%D 2006
%I 
%X The paper,on the basis of formation and dynamics diagnosis,has developed a synoptic concept model about sandstorms' happening.According to this model,combined with the theory of the uncertainty-set pair analysis,the paper has designed the sandstorm short-range forecasting method.The forecast factors in the synoptic concept model have been selected strictly by means of the characteristics of forecasted objects,the physical significance of the forecasting factors,the experiences in forecasting sandstorm weather,and some technical ways.Generally speaking,all the selected forecast factors have better forecast abilities,but the better abilities of these factors aren't always unchanged.Sometimes,the better ability of one factor may play down.Thus,the error is generated in forecast results.Set Pair Analysis(SPA) is a systemic theory and method used in diagnosing non-authenticity.Using the theory and method,this paper makes a judgment of status and analysis of same-difference-reverse about the factors that will be used to forecast the sandstorm weather.In analyzing,the method weakens effect of those factors with badness abilities in the sandstorm forecast model,while those with better abilities in the model will contribute greatly to forecast it.As a result,optimizing the structure of factors can be realized in the forecast model.The rationality of forecast mechanism in the model can be strengthened.The applications for 24 h sandstorm forecasting in spring of 2004 interpreting and using from the numerical forecast products indicate that the method has better effect.
%K Set Pair Analysis(SPA)
%K uncertainty
%K relation
%K sand storm forecasting<br>集对分析
%K 不确定性
%K 联系度
%K 沙尘暴预报
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=869B153A4C6B5B85&jid=F62EDFC6E63C5D025C6AE9D0171B7C05&aid=320C9496A6E3A1C5&yid=37904DC365DD7266&vid=96C778EE049EE47D&iid=0B39A22176CE99FB&sid=DC330B09A33F1455&eid=4E6F5C60B72D9B1C&journal_id=1000-694X&journal_name=中国沙漠&referenced_num=6&reference_num=14