%0 Journal Article
%T Analyzing Optimal Timing of Firm''''s R&D Investment under Incomplete Information in a Real Options and Game-theoretic Framework<br>不完全信息条件下企业R&D 最优投资时机的期权博弈分析
%A WU Jian-zu
%A XUAN Hui-yu
%A <br>吴建祖
%A 宣慧玉
%J 系统工程理论与实践
%D 2006
%I 
%X This paper examines the optimal timing of firm's R&D investment under uncertainty in a real options and game-theoretic framework.We incorporate incomplete information into the model by assuming that a firm does not know rival's investment threshold but know its distribution.We find that incomplete information restrains the competition from undermining the waiting option value and delays the firm's R&D investment.The optimal timing of firm's R&D investment is determined by its conjecture about rival's hazard rate: the more the hazard rate is,the earlier the firm invests.
%K optimal timing
%K incomplete information
%K option game
%K R&D
%K hazard rate<br>最优时机
%K 不完全信息
%K 期权博弈
%K 研究与开发
%K 危险率
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=01BA20E8BA813E1908F3698710BBFEFEE816345F465FEBA5&cid=962324E222C1AC1D&jid=1D057D9E7CAD6BEE9FA97306E08E48D3&aid=26B2037D23E2D51A&yid=37904DC365DD7266&vid=96C778EE049EE47D&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=771152D1ADC1C0EB&eid=318E4CC20AED4940&journal_id=1000-6788&journal_name=系统工程理论与实践&referenced_num=0&reference_num=15