%0 Journal Article
%T STUDY ON MONTHLY CENTRAL TAX REVENUES FORECASTING MODELS BASED ON TIME SERIES METHOD<br>基于时间序列法的国税月度收入预测模型研究
%A ZHANG Mengyao
%A CUI Jinchuan
%A <br>张梦瑶
%A 崔晋川
%J 系统科学与数学
%D 2008
%I 
%X The monthly central tax revenues forecasting is considered based on time series method. A monthly tax revenues forecasting method, including how to fit, test, forecast, evaluate and dynamically revise the model, is proposed through the combination of ARIMA model proposed by Box-Jenkins and central tax data. According to this method, monthly tax revenues of value-added tax, customs duty and business tax from January to December in 2006 are predicted. Comparing with actual monthly revenues of these three taxes during 2006, the average relative errors are no more than 5.47\%, 8.63\% and 2.37\%, respectively. Finally, suggestions of dynamically revising the forecasting model in practical application are presented. Problems that occur during the use of time series method in tax revenues forecasting are also simply discussed.
%K Statistical forecasting
%K time series method
%K ARIMA model
%K tax revenues forecasting
%K monthly forecasting<br>统计预测
%K 时间序列方法
%K ARIMA模型
%K 税收预测
%K 月度预测.
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=6E709DC38FA1D09A4B578DD0906875B5B44D4D294832BB8E&cid=37F46C35E03B4B86&jid=0CD45CC5E994895A7F41A783D4235EC2&aid=D7103FF45F8162EE483B2678E62EA511&yid=67289AFF6305E306&vid=D3E34374A0D77D7F&iid=708DD6B15D2464E8&sid=59754DBA76F6BBAA&eid=1194166861DF0923&journal_id=1000-0577&journal_name=系统科学与数学&referenced_num=2&reference_num=5