%0 Journal Article
%T Analysis of precursors and predictability of PDSI extremes in China<br>中国旱涝极端事件前兆信号及可预测性研究
%A Zhang Lu
%A Zhang Da-Quan
%A Feng Guo-Lin
%A <br>张璐
%A 章大全
%A 封国林
%J 物理学报
%D 2010
%I 
%X We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme events of Lorenz system with different percentile. The precursors and predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extremes in China are analyzed, and obtained how the quality of the prediction depends on the size of the extreme events and on the correlation strength. Results indicate that for extreme events of Lorenz system and PDSI series, the stronger the extreme, the higher the predictablility. Moreover, we analyzed precursors and predictability of eight regions in China and provide some due scientific basis for flood and drought predictions.
%K extreme events
%K precursors
%K predictability<br>极端事件
%K 前兆信号
%K 可预测性
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=6E709DC38FA1D09A4B578DD0906875B5B44D4D294832BB8E&cid=47EA7CFDDEBB28E0&jid=29DF2CB55EF687E7EFA80DFD4B978260&aid=AB1E5E1AAB637B79333BF97AA7942393&yid=140ECF96957D60B2&vid=6AC2A205FBB0EF23&iid=5D311CA918CA9A03&sid=5B22CB068244793B&eid=1D4C112D557D032E&journal_id=1000-3290&journal_name=物理学报&referenced_num=0&reference_num=22