%0 Journal Article
%T Potential distributions of the fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera:Tephritidae) in China as predicted by CLIMEX<br>基于CLIMEX的桔小实蝇在中国适生区的预测
%A HOU Bo-Hua
%A <br>侯柏华
%J 生态学报
%D 2005
%I 
%X Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera:Tephritidae), is native to tropical and subtropical zone. Temperature and moisture are the key factors determining its distribution. We used the computer model, CLIMEX to predict the fly's potential distribution in China. Seventeen variables were used and they were the lower temperature threshold (DV_0), lower optimum temperature (DV_1), upper optimum temperature (DV_2), upper temperature threshold(DV_3), length of growing season (PDD), lower soil moisture threshold (SM_0), lower optimal soil moisture (SM_1), upper optimal soil moisture (SM_2), upper soil moisture threshold (SM_3), cold stress degree-day threshold (DTCS) and its rate (DHCS), heat stress accumulation threshold (TTHS) and its rate (THHS), dry stress threshold (SMDS) and its rate (HDS), wet stress threshold (SMWS) and its rate (HWS). A starting set of parameter values was selected based on knowledge of oriental fruit fly response to climatic extremes. An iterative parameter-fitting method was used to generate a map showing ecoclimatic index (EI) at meteorological stations across India and Hawaii where the geographic distribution of oriental fruit fly is known. The EI is a measure of climatic suitability to survive of oriental fruit fly estimated by CLIMEX. The same parameters were then applied to data from China to predict the EIs. The potential geographic regions were divided into four categories according to the values of EIs, namely most suitable area, more suitable area, suitable area, and unsuitable area for oriental fruit fly. The results showed that the most suitable areas are in South China including Guangdong, Hong Kong, Hainan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, where the values of EIs are over 40 expect Guilin (EI=17). The more suitable area includes Yunnan, Sichuan, Southwest China and some part of Fujian province, where the mean value of EIs is 29.7. The suitable area drops in some parts of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces, where the values of EIs are less than 10 expect Ganzhou(EI=17). The unsuitable area includes the northern part of Yangzi River, where the fruit fly can't occur and survive.
%K oriental fruit fly
%K Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel)
%K CLIMEX
%K suitable area
%K prediction
%K China<br>桔小实蝇
%K CLIMEX模型
%K 适生区
%K 预测
%K 中国
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=90BA3D13E7F3BC869AC96FB3DA594E3FE34FBF7B8BC0E591&jid=FE163E5DB2274E5937319DE98913EC37&aid=DCD1D9BEE70B0109&yid=2DD7160C83D0ACED&vid=C5154311167311FE&iid=DF92D298D3FF1E6E&sid=0DDE48E4C6ED47B1&eid=3ACD4359575EFDCA&journal_id=1000-0933&journal_name=生态学报&referenced_num=35&reference_num=40