%0 Journal Article
%T Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models
%A A. E. Sterk
%A M. P. Holland
%A P. Rabassa
%A H. W. Broer
%A R. Vitolo
%J Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG)
%D 2012
%I Copernicus Publications
%X Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small) values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.
%U http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/19/529/2012/npg-19-529-2012.html