%0 Journal Article
%T The Variance of the Number of Effects in an Epidemiological Cohort - The Role of Dose Uncertainty
%A Guthrie Miller
%J The Open Epidemiology Journal
%D 2009
%I Bentham Open
%R 10.2174/1874297100801010048]
%X Two basic formulas, for the mean and variance of the number of effects in an epidemiological cohort, are derived. The formula for variance shows  extra-binomial variation  or  overdispersion  when there is correlated uncertainty of the probability of an effect. The formulas were validated by a numerical Monte Carlo study. The method of including  epistemic  uncertainty discussed by Hofer (E. Hofer, Health Physics, 2007) is generalized to include separately uncertainty from a Bayesian posterior distribution when the prior is known, and uncertainty of the prior.
%U http://www.benthamscience.com/open/toepij/articles/V001/48TOEPIJ.htm