%0 Journal Article
%T National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002
%A Johnson
%A Bryan Andrew Kenyon
%J Revista de Economia Pol¨ªtica
%D 2007
%I Editora 34
%R 10.1590/S0101-31572007000100004
%X this paper examines how exchange rate policies and imf stand-by arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between argentina and brazil. it refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but stand-by arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. unlike argentina, brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the imf. the results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.
%K exchange rate policies
%K imf stand-by arrangements
%K probability of default.
%U http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0101-31572007000100004&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en