Assessment of the Photovoltaic Solar Potential of Buildings for the Electrification of Communities Not Connected to the National Grid in Mali

The assessment of solar energy potential in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali, has made significant progress due to various geographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors. This study focuses on assessing the solar potential of buildings in rural areas of Mali, specifically excluding grid-connected electrification systems. It highlights the transition from initial feasibility studies to comprehensive assessments that take into account the lack of electrification services and the region’s abundant solar resources. The study identifies optimal rooftop sites for the installation of solar photovoltaic systems in rural municipalities in Mali that are in need of electricity. The methodology uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize key criteria, such as the absence of reliable electrification services, the availability of solar resources, and space for installing solar panels. In this study, the assessment of the solar potential of buildings covered 547 municipalities, which were identified and deemed suitable using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for solar photovoltaic installation. These municipalities are spread across the entire country, specifically in rural and peri-urban areas of Mali with varying levels of solar radiation. The theoretical surface area potential of available and unused buildings is estimated at 84697.17 hectares. After taking other land uses into account, the technical potential is estimated at 50% of this area. The available solar potential is quantified at 819445297.61 MWh, representing an estimated annual electricity generation of 348601162.21 kWh. These results highlight the viability of solar projects in these areas, with an installed capacity of 3.17 kWp capable of replacing carbon-based energy sources, thereby helping to reduce negative environmental impacts. The study concludes that the region has strong potential for solar energy projects, particularly on building rooftops, which can effectively replace carbon-based energy sources that have a negative impact on the environment. This represents a significant opportunity for sustainable energy development in rural areas of Mali.