%0 Journal Article
%T Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes
%A David H. Douglass
%A Robert S. Knox
%A Scott Curtis
%A Benjamin S. Giese
%A Sulagna Ray
%J Atmospheric and Climate Sciences
%P 48-64
%@ 2160-0422
%D 2017
%I Scientific Research Publishing
%R 10.4236/acs.2017.71005
%X Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Ni<span style=\"font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;\">&amp;#241</span>o episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two- or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Ni<span style=\"font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;\">&amp;#241</span>o episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Ni<span style=\"font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;\">&amp;#241</span>o episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Ni<span style=\"font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;\">&amp;#241</span>o is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.
%K Climate
%K Climatology
%K Solar Forcing
%K Seasonal Effects
%K El Ni&#241
%K o
%K Phase Locking
%U http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=73503