%0 Journal Article
%T Les hasards de la variole The hazards of smallpox
%A Jean-Marc Rohrbasser
%J Ast¨¦rion
%D 2011
%I ?cole Normale Sup¨¦rieure de Lyon
%X La n¨¦cessit¨¦ d¡¯un calcul ayant pour fin d¡¯estimer un risque peut ¨ºtre r¨¦voqu¨¦e en doute lorsqu¡¯il s¡¯agit de prendre une d¨¦cision en situation d¡¯incertitude, a fortiori lorsqu¡¯il s¡¯agit d¡¯une question de vie ou de mort. Dans la controverse engag¨¦e sur l¡¯opportunit¨¦ d¡¯inoculer la variole, la position de D¡¯Alembert constitue un cas exemplaire de scepticisme portant sur l¡¯application des math¨¦matiques, et en l¡¯occurrence du calcul des probabilit¨¦s, ¨¤ des d¨¦cisions relatives ¨¤ la vie humaine. D¡¯Alembert, en effet, conteste aux math¨¦matiques sociales le pouvoir de rendre compte de ph¨¦nom¨¨nes humains en y cherchant des r¨¦gularit¨¦s et des formalisations sans dissocier les dimensions math¨¦matiques et probabilistes des dimensions philosophiques et ¨¦thiques. En suivant le d¨¦bat qui, au milieu du xviiie si¨¨cle, se d¨¦roule entre le math¨¦maticien fran ais et son homologue suisse Daniel Bernoulli, on assiste ¨¤ l¡¯un des ¨¦pisodes de la lente gestation des notions de prise de risque, de d¨¦cision et de rationalit¨¦. The necessity of a calculation aiming to evaluate a risk can be revoked in doubt when the question is to make a decision in a situation of uncertainty, all the more when the question is about life or death. In the controversy opened on the opportunity to inoculate the smallpox, D'Alembert¡¯s position constitutes an exemplary case of scepticism concerning the application of the mathematics, and in this particular case the probability theory, to decisions relative to the human life. D¡¯Alembert, indeed, disputes in the social mathematics the power to describe human phenomena by looking for regularities and for formalizations without separating the mathematical and probability dimensions of the philosophic and ethical ones. By following the debate which, in the middle of the 18th century, takes place between the French mathematician and his Swiss counterpart Daniel Bernoulli, we attend one of the episodes of the slow gestation of the notions of risk-taking, decision and rationality.
%K D¡¯Alembert
%K Bernoulli
%K inoculation
%K probability
%K risk
%K risque
%K probabilit¨¦
%K inoculation
%K D¡¯Alembert
%K Bernoulli
%U http://asterion.revues.org/2143