%0 Journal Article %T Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy %A S. Davolio %A T. Diomede %A C. Marsigli %A M. M. Miglietta %A A. Montani %A A. Morgillo %J Advances in Science and Research (ASR) %D 2012 %I Copernicus Publications %R 10.5194/asr-8-33-2012 %X Within the framework of coupled meteorological-hydrological predictions, this study aims at comparing two high-resolution meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range. The two modelling systems have similar characteristics, as almost the same number of members, the model resolution (about 7 km), the driving ECMWF global ensemble prediction system, but are obtained through different methodologies: the former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter follows a single-model approach, based on COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System), the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium. Precipitation forecasts are evaluated in terms of hydrological response, after coupling the meteorological models with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno river (Northern Italy), for a severe weather episode. Although a single case study does not allow for robust and definite conclusions, the comparison among different predictions points out a remarkably better performance of mesoscale model ensemble forecasts compared to global ones. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble outperforms the single model approach. %U http://www.adv-sci-res.net/8/33/2012/asr-8-33-2012.html