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This paper studied the macroeconomic and the term structure of treasury bonds in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Market. Different from previous studies, we used a group of 122 observed macroeconomic data to construct our model’s macro factor. Therefore the macro factor contained more information than previous studies in predicting the excess return of Treasury bond. Based on the Kalman-Filter estimation, the results show that the macro factor’s risk was compensated through the level factor and slope factor, especially the level factor. Further, based on the decomposition of the yield curve into expected future short rate part and risk premium part, we find that there is some correlation between the variability of the risk premium and monetary policy to some extent.
this paper, the relationship between personality traits and the parameters of
certain social networks is investigated directly through data collection by
precise questionnaire surveys. First, social network analysis is employed to
calculate multiple parameters of the networks. Then, a correlation analysis is
conducted on the relationship between the personality traits and the parameters.
The results show that some network parameters are in consistent with the
students’ personality traits. Results also reveal that the parameters of the
respondents who mark themselves as “extroverted” are much closer to those of
respondents who mark themselves as “neutral” than “introverted”.