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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 218895 matches for " T. O. Sonnenborg "
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Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer
P. Rasmussen, T. O. Sonnenborg, G. Goncear,K. Hinsby
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2013,
Abstract: Groundwater abstraction from coastal aquifers is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise because both may potentially impact saltwater intrusion and hence groundwater quality depending on the hydrogeological setting. In the present study the impacts of sea level rise and changes in groundwater recharge are quantified for an island located in the Western Baltic Sea. The low-lying central area of the investigated part of the island was extensively drained and reclaimed during the second half of the 19th century by a system of artificial drainage canals that significantly affects the flow dynamics of the area. The drinking water, mainly for summer cottages, is abstracted from 11 wells drilled to a depth of around 20 m into the upper 5–10 m of a confined chalk aquifer, and the total pumping is only 5–6% of the drainage pumping. Increasing chloride concentrations have been observed in several abstraction wells and in some cases the WHO drinking water standard has been exceeded. Using the modeling package MODFLOW/MT3D/SEAWAT the historical, present and future freshwater-sea water distribution is simulated. The model is calibrated against hydraulic head observations and validated against geochemical and geophysical data from new investigation wells, including borehole logs, and from an airborne transient electromagnetic survey. The impact of climate changes on saltwater intrusion is found to be sensitive to the boundary conditions of the investigated system. For the flux-controlled aquifer to the west of the drained area only changes in groundwater recharge impacts the freshwater–sea water interface whereas sea level rise does not result in increasing sea water intrusion. However, on the barrier islands to the east of the reclaimed area, below which the sea is hydraulically connected to the drainage canals, and the boundary of the flow system therefore controlled, the projected changes in sea level, groundwater recharge and stage of the drainage canals all have significant impacts on saltwater intrusion and the chloride concentrations found in abstraction wells.
Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer
P. Rasmussen,T. O. Sonnenborg,G. Goncear,K. Hinsby
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2013, DOI: 10.5194/hess-17-421-2013
Abstract: Groundwater abstraction from coastal aquifers is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise because both may potentially impact saltwater intrusion and hence groundwater quality depending on the hydrogeological setting. In the present study the impacts of sea level rise and changes in groundwater recharge are quantified for an island located in the Western Baltic Sea. The low-lying central area of the investigated part of the island was extensively drained and reclaimed during the second half of the 19th century by a system of artificial drainage canals that significantly affects the flow dynamics of the area. The drinking water, mainly for summer cottages, is abstracted from 11 wells drilled to a depth of around 20 m into the upper 5–10 m of a confined chalk aquifer, and the total pumping is only 5–6% of the drainage pumping. Increasing chloride concentrations have been observed in several abstraction wells and in some cases the WHO drinking water standard has been exceeded. Using the modeling package MODFLOW/MT3D/SEAWAT the historical, present and future freshwater-sea water distribution is simulated. The model is calibrated against hydraulic head observations and validated against geochemical and geophysical data from new investigation wells, including borehole logs, and from an airborne transient electromagnetic survey. The impact of climate changes on saltwater intrusion is found to be sensitive to the boundary conditions of the investigated system. For the flux-controlled aquifer to the west of the drained area only changes in groundwater recharge impacts the freshwater–sea water interface whereas sea level rise does not result in increasing sea water intrusion. However, on the barrier islands to the east of the reclaimed area, below which the sea is hydraulically connected to the drainage canals, and the boundary of the flow system therefore controlled, the projected changes in sea level, groundwater recharge and stage of the drainage canals all have significant impacts on saltwater intrusion and the chloride concentrations found in abstraction wells.
Climate change effects on irrigation demands and minimum stream discharge: impact of bias-correction method
J. Rasmussen,T. O. Sonnenborg,S. Stisen,L. P. Seaby
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2012, DOI: 10.5194/hessd-9-4989-2012
Abstract: Climate changes are expected to result in a warmer global climate, with increased inter-annual variability. In this study, the possible impacts of these climate changes on irrigation and low stream flow are investigated using a distributed hydrological model of a sandy catchment in western Denmark. The IPCC climate scenario A1B was chosen as the basis for the study, and meteorological forcings (precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and temperature) derived from the ECHAM5-RACMO2 regional climate model for the period 2071–2100 was applied to the model. Two bias correction methods, Delta Change and Distribution-Based Scaling, were used to evaluate the importance of the bias correction method. Using the annual irrigation amounts, the minimum stream flow, the median minimum stream flow and the mean stream flow as indicators, the irrigation and the stream flow predicted using the two methods were compared. The study found that irrigation is significantly underestimated and low stream flow in overestimated when using the delta change method, due to the inability of this method to account for changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and reference ET and the resulting effects on irrigation demands. Additionally, future increases in CO2 are found to have a significant effect on both irrigation and low flow, due to reduced transpiration from plants.
Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer
P. Rasmussen,T. O. Sonnenborg,G. Goncear,K. Hinsby
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2012, DOI: 10.5194/hessd-9-7969-2012
Abstract: Groundwater abstraction from coastal aquifers is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise because both may potentially impact saltwater intrusion and hence groundwater quality depending on the hydrogeological setting. In the present study the impacts of sea level rise and changes in groundwater recharge are quantified for an island located in the Western Baltic Sea. Agricultural land dominates the western and central parts of the island, which geologically are developed as push moraine hills and a former lagoon (later wetland area) behind barrier islands to the east. The low-lying central area of the island was extensively drained and reclaimed during the second half of the 19th century. Summer cottages along the beach on the former barrier islands dominate the eastern part of the island. The main water abstraction is for holiday cottages during the summer period (June–August). The water is abstracted from 11 wells drilled to a depth of around 20 m in the upper 5–10 m of a confined chalk aquifer. Increasing chloride concentrations have been observed in several abstraction wells and in some cases the WHO drinking water standard has been exceeded. Using the modeling package MODFLOW/MT3D/SEAWAT the historical, present and future freshwater–sea water distribution is simulated. The model is calibrated against hydraulic head observations and validated against geochemical and geophysical data from new investigation wells, including borehole logs, and from an airborne transient electromagnetic survey. The impact of climate changes on saltwater intrusion is found to be sensitive to the boundary conditions of the investigated system. For the flux-controlled aquifer to the west of the drained area only changes in groundwater recharge impacts the freshwater–sea water interface whereas sea level rise do not result in increasing sea water intrusion. However, on the barrier islands to the east of the reclaimed area below which the sea is hydraulically connected to the drainage canal, and the boundary of the flow system therefore controlled, the projected changes in sea level, groundwater recharge and stage of the drainage canal all have significant impacts on saltwater intrusion and hence the chloride concentrations found in the abstraction wells.
Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise
F. J?rgensen,W. Scheer,S. Thomsen,T. O. Sonnenborg
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2012, DOI: 10.5194/hessd-9-2629-2012
Abstract: Geophysical techniques are increasingly used as tools for characterising the subsurface and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark a combination of an airborne transient electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m giving a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, deep and shallow buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological elements mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area thus providing important information on the fresh-saltwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although, the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore is strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity here, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological elements within the area. The effects of future sea level rise on the groundwater system and chemical status are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and assessing their control on the groundwater salinity distribution.
Threshold values and management options for nutrients in a catchment of a temperate estuary with poor ecological status
K. Hinsby, S. Markager, B. Kronvang, J. Windolf, T. O. Sonnenborg,L. Thorling
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2012,
Abstract: Intensive farming has severe impacts on the chemical status of groundwater and streams and consequently on the ecological status of dependent ecosystems. Eutrophication is a widespread problem in lakes and marine waters. Common problems are hypoxia, algal blooms, fish kills, and loss of water clarity, underwater vegetation, biodiversity and recreational value. In this paper we evaluate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations of groundwater and surface water in a coastal catchment, the loadings and sources of N and P, and their effect on the ecological status of an estuary. We calculate the necessary reductions in N and P loadings to the estuary for obtaining a good ecological status, which we define based on the number of days with N and P limitation, and the corresponding stream and groundwater threshold values assuming two different management options. The calculations are performed by the combined use of empirical models and a physically based 3-D integrated hydrological model of the whole catchment. The assessment of the ecological status indicates that the N and P loads to the investigated estuary should be reduced to levels corresponding to 52 and 56% of the current loads, respectively, to restore good ecological status. Model estimates show that threshold total N (TN) concentrations should be in the range of 2.9 to 3.1 mg l 1 in inlet freshwater (streams) to Horsens estuary and 6.0 to 9.3 mg l 1 in shallow aerobic groundwater (~ 27–41 mg l 1 of nitrate), depending on the management measures implemented in the catchment. The situation for total P (TP) is more complex, but data indicate that groundwater threshold values are not needed. The stream threshold value for TP to Horsens estuary for the selected management options is 0.084 mg l 1. Regional climate models project increasing winter precipitation and runoff in the investigated region resulting in increasing runoff and nutrient loads to the Horsens estuary and many other coastal waters if present land use and farming practices continue. Hence, lower threshold values are required in many coastal catchments in the future to ensure good status of water bodies and ecosystems.
Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in complex terrain
J. Rasmussen, T. O. Sonnenborg, S. Stisen, L. P. Seaby, B. S. B. Christensen,K. Hinsby
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2012,
Abstract: Climate changes are expected to result in a warmer global climate, with increased inter-annual variability. In this study, the possible impacts of these climate changes on irrigation and low stream flow are investigated using a distributed hydrological model of a sandy catchment in western Denmark. The IPCC climate scenario A1B was chosen as the basis for the study, and meteorological forcings (precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and temperature) derived from the ECHAM5-RACMO regional climate model for the period 2071–2100 was applied to the model. Two bias correction methods, delta change and Distribution-Based Scaling, were used to evaluate the importance of the bias correction method. Using the annual irrigation amounts, the 5-percentile stream flow, the median minimum stream flow and the mean stream flow as indicators, the irrigation and the stream flow predicted using the two methods were compared. The study found that irrigation is significantly underestimated when using the delta change method, due to the inability of this method to account for changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and reference ET and the resulting effects on irrigation demands. However, this underestimation of irrigation did not result in a significantly higher summer stream flow, because the summer stream flow in the studied catchment is controlled by the winter and spring recharge, rather than the summer precipitation. Additionally, future increases in CO2 are found to have a significant effect on both irrigation and low flow, due to reduced transpiration from plants.
Evaluating the influence of long term historical climate change on catchment hydrology – using drought and flood indices
I. B. Karlsson,T. O. Sonnenborg,K. H. Jensen,J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2013, DOI: 10.5194/hessd-10-2373-2013
Abstract: This study uses a 133 yr data set from the 1055 km2 Skjern River catchment in a western Danish catchment to evaluate: long-term past climate changes in the area; the capability of a conceptual hydrological model NAM to simulate climate change impacts on river discharge; and the occurrences of droughts and floods in a changing climate. The degree of change in the climatic variables is examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. During the last 133 yr the area has experienced a significant change in precipitation of 46% and a temperature change of 1.3 °C leading to (simulated) increases in discharge of 103% and groundwater recharge of 172%. Only a small part of the past climatic changes was found to be correlated to the climatic drivers: NAO, SCA and AMO. The NAM model was calibrated on the period 1961–1970 and showed generally an excellent match between simulated and observed discharge. The capability of the hydrological model to predict climate change impact was investigated by looking at performances outside the calibration period. The results showed a reduced model fit, especially for the modern time periods (after the 1970s), and not all hydrological changes could be explained. This might indicate that hydrological models cannot be expected to predict climate change impacts on discharge as accurately in the future, as they perform under present conditions, where they can be calibrated. The (simulated) stream discharge was subsequently analyzed using flood and drought indices based on the threshold method. The extreme signal was found to depend highly on the period chosen as reference to normal. The analysis, however, indicated enhanced amplitude of the hydrograph towards the drier extremes superimposed on the overall discharge increase leading to more relative drought periods.
Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time
X. He,T. O. Sonnenborg,F. J?rgensen,A.-S. H?yer
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2013, DOI: 10.5194/hessd-10-2789-2013
Abstract: Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters whereas uncertainty in the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS) integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patterns for a site in Denmark. Realizations from the geostatistical model were used as input to a groundwater model developed from MODFLOW within the GMS modeling environment. The uncertainty analysis was carried out in three scenarios involving simulation of groundwater head distribution and groundwater age. The first scenario implied 100 stochastic geological models all assigning the same hydraulic parameters for the same geological units. In the second scenario the same 100 geological models were subjected to model optimization where the hydraulic parameters for each of them were estimated by calibration against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge. In the third scenario each geological model was run with 216 randomized set of parameters. The analysis documented that the uncertainty on the conceptual geological model was as significant as the uncertainty related to the embedded hydraulic parameters.
Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise
F. J rgensen, W. Scheer, S. Thomsen, T. O. Sonnenborg, K. Hinsby, H. Wiederhold, C. Schamper, T. Burschil, B. Roth, R. Kirsch,E. Auken
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2012,
Abstract: Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.
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