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An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan
Saeed Akhtar, Shafquat Rozi
World Journal of Gastroenterology , 2009,
Abstract: AIM: To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.METHODS: Ninety-six months (1998-2005) data on HCV seropositive cases (1000-1 × month-1) among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate (%) between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series.RESULTS: The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (2,1,7) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors (%) over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean ± SD HCV seroprevalence (1000-1 × month-1) of 24.3 ± 1.4 over the forecast interval.CONCLUSION: To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection.
Peer Pressure and Family Smoking Habits Influence Smoking Uptake in Teenage Boys Attending School: Multilevel Modeling of Survey Data  [PDF]
Shafquat Rozi, Sadia Mahmud, Gillian Lancaster, Nida Zahid
Open Journal of Epidemiology (OJEpi) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.63018
Abstract: Introduction: Among young teens, about one in five smokes worldwide. Adolescents spend a considerable amount of their time in school, and the school environment is therefore important for child health practices and outcomes. Objectives: We aimed to investigate the impact on smoking behavior of the school environment and the personal characteristics of male teenage students attending schools in Pakistan, taking into account the survey sampling structure. Methods: A two-stage cluster sampling with stratification was employed, and we interviewed 772 male secondary school students. We adopted random effect and generalizing estimating equation models. Results: Peer pressure in particular had a strong influence on adolescents smoking; those whose friends smoked were up to 6 times more likely to smoke. Family smoking was also significantly associated with adolescents smoking, but those students whose mother was educated were 50% less likely to smoke. The fitted random effect model indicated that the between school variability was significant (p-value < 0.01), indicating differences in smoking habits between schools. A random coefficient model showed that variability among schools was not significantly different for public and private schools. Conclusion: Public health campaigns for smoking cessation should target not only the individual but also the families of adolescents attending schools.
Multilevel Modeling of Binary Outcomes with Three-Level Complex Health Survey Data  [PDF]
Shafquat Rozi, Sadia Mahmud, Gillian Lancaster, Wilbur Hadden, Gregory Pappas
Open Journal of Epidemiology (OJEpi) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2017.71004
Abstract: Complex survey designs often involve unequal selection probabilities of clus-ters or units within clusters. When estimating models for complex survey data, scaled weights are incorporated into the likelihood, producing a pseudo likeli-hood. In a 3-level weighted analysis for a binary outcome, we implemented two methods for scaling the sampling weights in the National Health Survey of Pa-kistan (NHSP). For NHSP with health care utilization as a binary outcome we found age, gender, household (HH) goods, urban/rural status, community de-velopment index, province and marital status as significant predictors of health care utilization (p-value < 0.05). The variance of the random intercepts using scaling method 1 is estimated as 0.0961 (standard error 0.0339) for PSU level, and 0.2726 (standard error 0.0995) for household level respectively. Both esti-mates are significantly different from zero (p-value < 0.05) and indicate consid-erable heterogeneity in health care utilization with respect to households and PSUs. The results of the NHSP data analysis showed that all three analyses, weighted (two scaling methods) and un-weighted, converged to almost identical results with few exceptions. This may have occurred because of the large num-ber of 3rd and 2nd level clusters and relatively small ICC. We performed a sim-ulation study to assess the effect of varying prevalence and intra-class correla-tion coefficients (ICCs) on bias of fixed effect parameters and variance components of a multilevel pseudo maximum likelihood (weighted) analysis. The simulation results showed that the performance of the scaled weighted estimators is satisfactory for both scaling methods. Incorporating simulation into the analysis of complex multilevel surveys allows the integrity of the results to be tested and is recommended as good practice.
Correlates of cigarette smoking among male college students in Karachi, Pakistan
Shafquat Rozi, Zahid A Butt, Saeed Akhtar
BMC Public Health , 2007, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-7-312
Abstract: The data used in this survey were obtained from a representative sample of registered colleges of Karachi. A random sample of 576 male college students of ages ranging from 15–30 years was interviewed using a questionnaire administered by survey officers, by applying multi stage cluster sampling during the academic year 2004–2005.In this study, we found 26.7% of students had ever tried smoking, whereas 24%(95% CI: 21.0%–28.0%) of college students reported current smoking (that is whether one had smoked a cigarette in past 30 days). Among different age groups, prevalence of current smoking was 19.2% in 15–17 years, 26.5% in 18–20 years and 65% in 21 years and above. After adjusting for age of respondent, students in public schools were more likely to smoke as compared to students in private schools (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.3–4.2). Students whose friends are smokers were 5 times more likely to smoke compared to those whose friends are non-smokers (adjusted OR = 4.8; 95%CI: 3.1 – 7.4). Those students having fathers with no formal schooling were more likely to smoke (adjusted OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1–4.2) as compared to those whose fathers had some degree of education. Students having non-working mothers were more likely to smoke as compared to students with working mothers (adjusted OR = 2.8; 95% CI: 0.9–9.1). Students belonging to Bin Qasim (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% C.I: 1.1–4.1) and Gadap town (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95%C.I) were more likely to smoke as compared to students residing in other towns.This study shows that smoking is strongly associated with age, which may suggest social tolerance to smoking in this setting and that social and educational variables appear to play a significant role in smoking among college students. Our study suggests that such factors should be taken into account when designing effective tobacco control programs among college students. This is an effort which has been done to reduce tobacco consumption among college students and introduce a
Association between Asthma and Dental Caries amongst 12 - 15 Years Old Children: A School-Based Cross-Sectional Study in Karachi, Pakistan  [PDF]
Wajeeha Zahid, Shafquat Rozi, Farhan Raza Khan, Nida Zahid, Masood Kadir
Open Journal of Epidemiology (OJEpi) , 2019, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2019.91010
Abstract: Objective: The study aimed to determine an association between dental caries and asthma among 12 to 15 years old children. Methods: This is a school-based cross-sectional study conducted from January to February 2016. A random sample of 544 children aged 12 - 15 years were enrolled from five private schools of Karachi. Dental caries was assessed using DMFT Index (Decayed, Missing, Filled teeth). The main exposure variable was asthma and information on it was collected through the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire. Results: The data was analyzed using Cox Proportional Hazard algorithm. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios with 95% CI were reported. Total 554 children, 306 (56.3%) boys and 43.7% girls participated in the study. Mean age of children was 13.2 ± 0.05 years. Total number of children with DMFT > 0 was 30.5%. The decayed component contributed largely (22.8%) to the DMFT score. Overall prevalence of asthma was 20%. Prevalence of caries in asthmatic children was 28.4% as compared to 31% among non-asthmatic children. Adjusted prevalence ratio of dental caries in asthmatic children was 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 - 1.3) after adjusting for carious food intake, age, oral hygiene index and dentist visit; the association between asthma and dental caries turned out to be in-significant. Conclusions: There was no association observed between asthma and dental caries among the children examined in this study.
Geographic Access to Working Family Planning Centers and Unintended Pregnancies among Married Women: A Community Based Nested Case Control Study  [PDF]
Sumera Aziz Ali, Sarah Saleem, Neelofar Sami, Mir Shabbar, Muhammad Ahmed, Shafquat Rozi, Robert L. Goldenberg, Margo S. Harrison, Omrana Pasha
Open Journal of Epidemiology (OJEpi) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.61010
Abstract: Background: Unintended pregnancies pose substantial risk to mothers and children. In Pakistan, unintended pregnancies account for 46% of all pregnancies. Lack of geographic access to open and well-supplied family planning (FP) centers may be related to the occurrence of such pregnancies, particularly in rural areas. Objective: The objective of this analysis is to determine if geographic access to family planning centers in the Thatta district of Pakistan is related to unintended pregnancy rates among married women. Methods: We conducted a community-based, nested case-control study of 800 pregnant women identified from the database of an active surveillance system, which registers and follows all pregnant women in the catchment area of Thatta district. Women were enrolled during the first trimester; those that reported their pregnancy to be unintended were selected as cases (n = 200), and those whose pregnancies were intended served as controls (n = 600). We defined geographic access as including both the distance of a family planning center from the woman’s home, and availability of personal transportation. Logistic regression was used for analysis. Results: In the multivariate model, neither distance [OR = 1.0; 95% CI (0.95 - 1.05)] nor availability of transportation [OR = 1.14; 95% CI (0.78 - 1.67)] were significantly associated with unintended pregnancy. In fact, women with unintended pregnancies were more likely to be aware of family planning [OR = 2.21; 95% CI (1.23 - 3.97)] and more likely to have been using a contraceptive method before conceiving their index pregnancy [OR = 3.59; 95% CI (1.83 - 7.06)]. Other factors related to unintended pregnancy were older maternal age [OR = 1.13; 95% CI (1.08 - 1.17)], having already had at least one son [OR = 3.13; 95% CI (1.93 - 5.07)]; spousal opposition to contraceptive use, [OR = 3.24; 95% CI (1.89 - 5.56)] and low spousal education level [OR = 1.85; 95% CI (1.08 - 3.18)] as compared to women with intended pregnancy. Conclusion: Lack of geographic access to FP centers is not a risk factor for unintended pregnancy in women from the Thatta district. However, in this population, unintended pregnancies are more common among older women, women having at least one son, and those who have a spouse who does not approve of contraceptive use, and is less educated. Of note, women who reported unintended pregnancy did have knowledge about FP and were more often using contraceptives before they conceived.
Hyperendemic pulmonary tuberculosis in peri-urban areas of Karachi, Pakistan
Saeed Akhtar, Franklin White, Rumina Hasan, Shafquat Rozi, Mohammad Younus, Faiza Ahmed, Sara Husain, Bilquis Khan
BMC Public Health , 2007, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-7-70
Abstract: A cross-sectional study was conducted in two peri-urban neighbourhoods from May 2002 to November 2002. Systematic sampling design was used to select households for inclusion in the study. Consenting subjects aged 15 years or more from selected households were interviewed and, whenever possible, sputum samples were obtained. Sputum samples were subjected to direct microscopy by Ziehl-Neelson method, bacterial culture and antibiotic sensitivity tests.The prevalence (per 100,000) of pulmonary tuberculosis among the subjects aged 15 years or more, who participated in the study was 329 (95% confidence interval (CI): 195 – 519). The prevalence (per 100,000) of pulmonary tuberculosis adjusted for non-sampling was 438 (95% CI: 282 – 651). Other than cough, none of the other clinical variables was significantly associated with pulmonary tuberculosis status. Analysis of drug sensitivity pattern of 15 strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis revealed that one strain was resistant to isoniazid alone, one to streptomycin alone and one was resistant to isoniazid and streptomycin. The remaining 12 strains were susceptible to all five drugs including streptomycin, isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide.This study of previously undetected tuberculosis cases in an impoverished peri-urban setting reveals the poor operational performance of Pakistan's current approach to tuberculosis control; it also demonstrates a higher prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis than current national estimates. Public health authorities may wish to augment health education efforts aimed at prompting health-seeking behaviour to facilitate more complete and earlier case detection. Such efforts to improve passive case-finding, if combined with more accessible DOTS infra-structure for treatment of detected cases, may help to diminish the high tuberculosis-related morbidity and mortality in marginalized populations. The economics of implementing a more active approach to case finding in resource-const
Poor knowledge – predictor of nonadherence to universal precautions for blood borne pathogens at first level care facilities in Pakistan
Naveed Z Janjua, Mahreen Razaq, Subhash Chandir, Shafquat Rozi, Bushra Mahmood
BMC Infectious Diseases , 2007, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-7-81
Abstract: We conducted a cross-sectional survey and selected three different types of FLCFs ; public, general practitioners and unqualified practitioners through stratified random sampling technique. At each facility, we interviewed a prescriber, a dispenser, and a housekeeper for knowledge of BBPs transmission and preventive practices, risk perception, and use of universal precautions. We performed multiple linear regression to assess the effect of knowledge score (11 items) on the practice of universal precautions score (4 items- use of gloves, gown, needle recapping, and HBV vaccination).We interviewed 239 subjects. Most of the participants 128 (53%) were recruited from general practitioners clinics and 166 (69.5%) of them were dispensers. Mean (SD) knowledge score was 3.8 (2.3) with median of 4. MBBS prescribers had the highest knowledge score while the housekeepers had the lowest. Mean universal precautions use score was 2.7 ± 2.1. Knowledge about mode of transmission and the work experience alone, significantly predicted universal precaution use in multiple linear regression model (adR2 = 0.093).Knowledge about mode of transmission of blood borne pathogens is very low. Use of universal precautions can improve with increase in knowledge.Health care workers are at a high risk of needle stick injury (NSI) and blood borne pathogens (BBP)[1]. According to a World Health Organization estimate, in year 2002, sharp injuries resulted in 16,000 hepatitis C virus (HCV), 66,000 hepatitis B virus (HBV) and 1000 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in health-care workers worldwide[2]. Recapping, disassembly, and inappropriate disposal increase risk of NSI [3-5]. In developing countries, the frequency of these factors gets accentuated with high injection use at health care facilities, most of which are provided with previously used syringes [2,6]. Injection use is very common in Pakistan where 13.6 injections per person are administered each year [7]. More than 50% of these i
A Systematic Review of Observational Studies, Demonstrating Smoking among School Going Adolescents  [PDF]
Shafquat Rozi, Gillian Lancaster, Sadia Mahmud, Zahid Ahmad Butt, Talat Roome, Nida Zahid
Open Journal of Epidemiology (OJEpi) , 2019, DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2019.92015
Abstract: Objective: To characterize the methods of design and analysis currently adopted in survey research of school-based observational studies for smoking, and to identify the common pitfalls made by researchers. Methods: The systematic review was conducted in 2009 and consisted of observational studies in school settings published between January 2005 and January 2009. Smoking status was the main outcome of interest. Following Cochrane style, five steps were followed: setting selection criteria for studies and conducting a literature search; review of abstracts; review of complete articles; data extraction and quality assessment of included studies; and, finally, synthesis of studies. Results: Of the 292 abstracts retrieved, 45 (15.4%) articles were selected for the final review. Inconsistencies were found in the definition of smoking behaviour which impeded generalisability. Individual-level factors had importance, but environmental level factors were also important in studying the aetiology of smoking. Results showed that studies inappropriately reported sample size estimation and important confounding factors. Hierarchical linear modelling, random effects modelling and structural equation modelling were employed in comparatively few studies. Conclusions: There were concerns regarding data analysis of complex surveys. Fifty five percent of reviewed studies ignored environmental effects which may have produced unreliable inferences. Multi-level analysis assisted in understanding school-level effects.
High HIV Incidence among Persons Who Inject Drugs in Pakistan: Greater Risk with Needle Sharing and Injecting Frequently among the Homeless
Rab Nawaz Samo, Arshad Altaf, Ajmal Agha, Omrana Pasha, Shafquat Rozi, Ashraf Memon, Saleem Azam, Meridith Blevins, Sten H. Vermund, Sharaf Ali Shah
PLOS ONE , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081715
Abstract: Background The incidence of HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWIDU) has fallen in many nations, likely due to successes of clean needle/syringe exchange and substance abuse treatment and service programs. However in Pakistan, prevalence rates for PWID have risen dramatically. In several cities, prevalence exceeded 20% by 2009 compared to a 2003 baseline of just 0.5%. However, no cohort study of PWID has ever been conducted. Methods We enrolled a cohort of 636 HIV seronegative PWID registered with three drop-in centers that focus on risk reduction and basic social services in Karachi. Recruitment began in 2009 (March to June) and PWID were followed for two years. We measured incidence rates and risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion. Results Incidence of HIV was 12.4 per 100 person-years (95% exact Poisson confidence interval [CI]: 10.3–14.9). We followed 474 of 636 HIV seronegative persons (74.5%) for two years, an annual loss to follow-up of <13 per 100 person years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, HIV seroconversion was associated with non-Muslim religion (Adjusted risk ratio [ARR] = 1.7, 95%CI:1.4, 2.7, p = 0.03), sharing of syringes (ARR = 2.3, 95%CI:1.5, 3.3, p<0.0001), being homeless (ARR = 1.7, 95%CI:1.1, 2.5, p = 0.009), and daily injection of drugs (ARR = 1.1, 95%CI:1.0, 1.3, p = 0.04). Conclusions Even though all members of the cohort of PWID were attending risk reduction programs, the HIV incidence rate was very high in Karachi from 2009–2011. The project budget was low, yet we were able to retain three-quarters of the population over two years. Absence of opiate substitution therapy and incomplete needle/syringe exchange coverage undermines success in HIV risk reduction.
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