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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 126815 matches for " Paula Mendes; Code?o "
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Is pertussis actually reemerging? Insights from an individual-based model
Codeo, Cláudia Torres;Luz, Paula Mendes;
Cadernos de Saúde Pública , 2001, DOI: 10.1590/S0102-311X2001000300005
Abstract: in this paper, we introduce a spatially explicit, individual-based model developed to simulate the dynamics of pertussis in a small population. with this simulation approach, complex epidemic systems can be built using information on parasite population structure (strain diversity, virulence diversity, etc.), human population structure (individual risk, age structure, interaction matrices, immune response, etc.), as well as mechanisms of evolution and learning. we parameterized our model to describe pertussis in an age-structured community. pertussis or whooping cough is an acute infection of the respiratory tract caused by bordetella pertussis. despite wide-scale vaccination in many countries, this disease is reemerging throughout the world in both adults and children. emergence has been explained by many factors: wane of vaccine and natural immunity, increase of asymptomatic carriers, and/or natural selection of non-vaccine strains. here, we model these hypotheses and analyze their potential impact on the observed increase of pertussis notification.
Is pertussis actually reemerging? Insights from an individual-based model
Codeo Cláudia Torres,Luz Paula Mendes
Cadernos de Saúde Pública , 2001,
Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a spatially explicit, individual-based model developed to simulate the dynamics of pertussis in a small population. With this simulation approach, complex epidemic systems can be built using information on parasite population structure (strain diversity, virulence diversity, etc.), human population structure (individual risk, age structure, interaction matrices, immune response, etc.), as well as mechanisms of evolution and learning. We parameterized our model to describe pertussis in an age-structured community. Pertussis or whooping cough is an acute infection of the respiratory tract caused by Bordetella pertussis. Despite wide-scale vaccination in many countries, this disease is reemerging throughout the world in both adults and children. Emergence has been explained by many factors: wane of vaccine and natural immunity, increase of asymptomatic carriers, and/or natural selection of non-vaccine strains. Here, we model these hypotheses and analyze their potential impact on the observed increase of pertussis notification.
Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Luz, Paula Mendes;Codeo, Cláudia Torres;Massad, Eduardo;Struchiner, Claudio José;
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz , 2003, DOI: 10.1590/S0074-02762003000700002
Abstract: dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in brazil. mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. to be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. in this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (den-4) in rio de janeiro city. our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (r0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. to deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. using the latin hypercube sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. we conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. the spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. at last, we conclude that rio de janeiro is at risk of a den-4 invasion. finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.
A reemergência da coqueluche em países desenvolvidos: um problema também para o Brasil?
Luz, Paula Mendes;Codeo, Cláudia Torres;Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro;
Cadernos de Saúde Pública , 2003, DOI: 10.1590/S0102-311X2003000400043
Abstract: pertussis is currently considered an important public health problem in developed countries. in most of these countries, mass immunization for pertussis was initiated in the 1950s and was followed by a marked decrease in disease incidence. in the 1970s, pertussis was apparently under control in countries were vaccine coverage was maintained high. however, in the last two decades of the 20th century, the number of reported cases increased in all age groups, including adolescents and adults, indicating resurgence of the disease. this brief note aims to present the possible reasons for resurgence of this disease and to discuss the prospects of its future dynamics in brazil. there has been no evidence to date for the resurgence of pertussis in brazil. however, since mass immunization in brazil began only in the 1980s, one cannot rule out the possibility that pertussis will resurge in the near future. therefore, it is important that public health services closely monitor the epidemiological situation of pertussis in order, if necessary, to rapidly update the current immunization strategy.
The many faces of epidemiology: evolutionary epidemiology
Struchiner,Claudio José; Luz,Paula Mendes; Codeo,Claudia Torres; Massad,Eduardo;
Ciência & Saúde Coletiva , 2008, DOI: 10.1590/S1413-81232008000600009
Abstract: we review important issues revealed by the application of the evolutionary theory to epidemiological problems. the scope is restricted to infectious diseases and the evolution of virulence as a consequence of public health strategies to control transmission. we focus on the discussion about the possibility of virulence management and explore current scenarios in which recent advances in molecular biology and genetics offer new tools to monitor and change diversity among pathogens, vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. we stress the need to integrate the analytical framework of epidemiology into population genetics and evolutionary theory. we anticipate as an outcome of this process the development of study designs and analytical tools to predict the evolutionary implications of control measures in the population and surveillance mechanisms to continuously monitor the changes in pathogen virulence patterns. communication among modelers, epidemiologists and molecular biologists is essential in order to design model-driven field trials and to develop data-driven analytical tools leading to conclusive findings that can inform the public health oriented decision making process.
Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Luz Paula Mendes,Codeo Cláudia Torres,Massad Eduardo,Struchiner Claudio José
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz , 2003,
Abstract: Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.
A reemergência da coqueluche em países desenvolvidos: um problema também para o Brasil?
Luz Paula Mendes,Codeo Cláudia Torres,Werneck Guilherme Loureiro
Cadernos de Saúde Pública , 2003,
Abstract: Atualmente, a coqueluche representa um crescente problema de saúde pública em países desenvolvidos. Nesses países, a imuniza o em massa de crian as, iniciada na década de 50, foi seguida por uma brusca diminui o da incidência da doen a. Assim, nos anos 70, a coqueluche n o representava uma importante amea a à saúde destas popula es. Porém, nas décadas de 80 e 90, ocorreu um aumento do número de casos em todas as faixas etárias, incluindo adolescentes e adultos, indicando a reemergência da coqueluche. Nesta nota objetiva-se apresentar as possíveis causas para esta reemergência e discutir perspectivas para a dinamica da doen a no Brasil. No momento, ainda n o existem evidências de reemergência da coqueluche no país. No entanto, como a vacina o em massa no Brasil foi iniciada apenas na década de 80, n o se pode descartar a hipótese de uma futura reemergência da doen a. Assim, é importante que servi os de vigilancia e controle de doen as monitorem a situa o epidemiológica da coqueluche para que, se necessário, estejam preparados para reformular as estratégias de imuniza o.
The epidemic wave of influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil, 2009
Codeo, Cláudia Torres;Cordeiro, Josiane da Silva;Lima, Arthur Weiss da Silva;Colpo, Rodrigo Amarante;Cruz, Oswaldo Gon?alves;Coelho, Flavio Codeo;Luz, Paula Mendes;Struchiner, Claudio José;Barros, Fernando Ribeiro de;
Cadernos de Saúde Pública , 2012, DOI: 10.1590/S0102-311X2012000700011
Abstract: this study describes the main features of pandemic influenza a (h1n1) in brazil during 2009. brazil is a large country that extends roughly from latitudes 5on to 34os. brazil has tropical and sub-tropical climates, a heterogeneous population distribution, and intense urbanization in the southern portions of the country and along its atlantic coast. our analysis points to a wide variation in infection rates throughout the country, and includes both latitudinal effects and strong variations in detection rates. two states (out of a total of 23) were responsible for 73% of all cases reported. real time reproduction numbers demonstrate that influenza transmission was sustained in the country, beginning inmay of 2009. finally, this study discusses the challenges in understanding the infection dynamics of influenza and the adequacy of brazil's influenza monitoring system.
Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir
Cláudia Codeo
BMC Infectious Diseases , 2001, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-1-1
Abstract: The reproduction rate of cholera in a community is defined by the product of social and environmental factors. The importance of the aquatic reservoir depends on the sanitary conditions of the community. Seasonal variations of contact rates force a cyclical pattern of cholera outbreaks, as observed in some cholera-endemic communities.Further development on cholera modeling requires a better understanding of V. cholerae ecology and epidemiology. We need estimates of the prevalence of V. cholerae infection in endemic populations as well as a better description of the relationship between dose and virulence.Since Snow's seminal work (1855), when cholera epidemics were first associated with a contaminated water supply, this disease has been the focus of intense study. Cholera is a waterborne disease characterized by severe diarrhea. The etiological agent is V. cholerae O1 (more recently also V. cholerae O139), which colonizes the small intestine and produces an enterotoxin responsible for a watery diarrhea. Without prompt treatment, a person with cholera may die of dehydration in a matter of hours after infection. Cholera outbreaks are generally associated to contaminated food and water supplies. Appropriate sanitation and safe water are the main weapons against this disease.Until the 19th century, cholera was confined to the Indian sub-continent [1]. There, cholera outbreaks are seasonal with one or two peaks per year [2]. From this region, cholera has spread throughout the world seven times since 1817 [3]. The last pandemics began in 1961 in Indonesia, spread through the Asian continent during the 60's, reached Africa in 1970 [4] and Latin America in 1991. The occurrence of successive cholera outbreaks throughout Africa and Latin America during the 90's raised the concern that cholera had established itself in these regions as an endemic disease.Once cholera arrives into a new region, either carried by an infected person or by contaminated water and food, we may expec
ENVEREDANDO: EXPERIêNCIA E MEMóRIA ATRAVéS DO CONTAR DE GRANDE SERT O
Renata Codeo Dias
Macabéa : Revista Eletr?nica do Netlli , 2012,
Abstract: The article presents a brief analysis of the narrative effects of the book Grande Sert o: Veredas, by Guimar es Rosa (translated as The Devil to Pay in the Backlands, by James L. Taylor e Harriet de Onís. New York: Knopf, 1963), as a work of thought about memory and construction of experience through telling. The notion of experience that comes from reading the work is compared to what Walter Benjamin conceptualized as a narrative of collective experience (Erfahrung), which seems to set in motion the impersonal and creative memory, subsuming the concept of the modern subject, whose personal and psychological experience is at stake, as is his interpersonal communication. Thus, Rosa, through the narrative character Riobaldo, makes of the telling a phenomenon of worlds opening and creation, in a contemporary context of declining importance of oral and living history, and the closure of experience as individuality.
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