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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 52410 matches for " Julio Michael Stern "
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Spencer-Brown vs. Probability and Statistics: Entropy’s Testimony on Subjective and Objective Randomness
Julio Michael Stern
Information , 2011, DOI: 10.3390/info2020277
Abstract: This article analyzes the role of entropy in Bayesian statistics, focusing on its use as a tool for detection, recognition and validation of eigen-solutions. “Objects as eigen-solutions” is a key metaphor of the cognitive constructivism epistemological framework developed by the philosopher Heinz von Foerster. Special attention is given to some objections to the concepts of probability, statistics and randomization posed by George Spencer-Brown, a figure of great influence in the field of radical constructivism.
Constructive Verification, Empirical Induction, and Falibilist Deduction: A Threefold Contrast
Julio Michael Stern
Information , 2011, DOI: 10.3390/info2040635
Abstract: This article explores some open questions related to the problem of verification of theories in the context of empirical sciences by contrasting three epistemological frameworks. Each of these epistemological frameworks is based on a corresponding central metaphor, namely: (a) Neo-empiricism and the gambling metaphor; (b) Popperian falsificationism and the scientific tribunal metaphor; (c) Cognitive constructivism and the object as eigen-solution metaphor. Each of one of these epistemological frameworks has also historically co-evolved with a certain statistical theory and method for testing scientific hypotheses, respectively: (a) Decision theoretic Bayesian statistics and Bayes factors; (b) Frequentist statistics and p-values; (c) Constructive Bayesian statistics and e-values. This article examines with special care the Zero Probability Paradox (ZPP), related to the verification of sharp or precise hypotheses. Finally, this article makes some remarks on Lakatos’ view of mathematics as a quasi-empirical science.
Symmetry, Invariance and Ontology in Physics and Statistics
Julio Michael Stern
Symmetry , 2011, DOI: 10.3390/sym3030611
Abstract: This paper has three main objectives: (a) Discuss the formal analogy between some important symmetry-invariance arguments used in physics, probability and statistics. Specifically, we will focus on Noether’s theorem in physics, the maximum entropy principle in probability theory, and de Finetti-type theorems in Bayesian statistics; (b) Discuss the epistemological and ontological implications of these theorems, as they are interpreted in physics and statistics. Specifically, we will focus on the positivist (in physics) or subjective (in statistics) interpretations vs. objective interpretations that are suggested by symmetry and invariance arguments; (c) Introduce the cognitive constructivism epistemological framework as a solution that overcomes the realism-subjectivism dilemma and its pitfalls. The work of the physicist and philosopher Max Born will be particularly important in our discussion.
Construtivismo cognitivo e estatística bayesiana
Stern, Julio Michael;
Scientiae Studia , 2006, DOI: 10.1590/S1678-31662006000400003
Abstract: in this paper, some epistemological, ontological, and sociological issues are investigated, concerning the statistical significance of sharp hypotheses in scientific research, within the framework offered by cognitive constructivism and fbst - the full bayesian significance test. the constructivist framework is contrasted to those furnished by decision theory and falsificationism, the traditional epistemological approaches to orthodox bayesian statistics and to frequentist statistics.
Jacob's Ladder and Scientific Ontologies
Julio Michael Stern
Physics , 2013,
Abstract: The main goal of this article is to use the epistemological framework of a specific version of Cognitive Constructivism to address Piaget's central problem of knowledge construction, namely, the re-equilibration of cognitive structures. The distinctive objective character of this constructivist framework is based on Heinz von Foerster's fundamental metaphor of - objects as tokens for eigen-solutions, and is also supported by formal inference methods of Bayesian statistics. This epistemological perspective is illustrated using some episodes in the history of chemistry concerning the definition or identification of chemical elements. Some of von Foerster's epistemological imperatives provide general guidelines of development and argumentation.
Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses
Carlos Alberto De Bragan?a Pereira,Julio Michael Stern
Entropy , 1999, DOI: 10.3390/e1040099
Abstract: A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the "Highest Posterior Density Region" that is "tangent" to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our measure of evidence is the complement of the credibility of the "tangent" region.
A new media optimizer based on the mean-variance model
Fernandez, Pedro Jesus;Lauretto, Marcelo de Souza;Pereira, Carlos Alberto de Bragan?a;Stern, Julio Michael;
Pesquisa Operacional , 2007, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-74382007000300003
Abstract: in the financial markets, there is a well established portfolio optimization model called generalized mean-variance model (or generalized markowitz model). this model considers that a typical investor, while expecting returns to be high, also expects returns to be as certain as possible. in this paper we introduce a new media optimization system based on the mean-variance model, a novel approach in media planning. after presenting the model in its full generality, we discuss possible advantages of the mean-variance paradigm, such as its flexibility in modeling the optimization problem, its ability of dealing with many media performance indices - satisfying most of the media plan needs - and, most important, the property of diversifying the media portfolios in a natural way, without the need to set up ad hoc constraints to enforce diversification.
Bayesian test of significance for conditional independence: The multinomial model
Pablo de Morais Andrade,Julio Michael Stern,Carlos Alberto de Bragan?a Pereira
Statistics , 2013, DOI: 10.3390/e16031376
Abstract: Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Networks (BN) models--CI tests are especially important for the task of learning the PGM structure from data. In this paper, we propose the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. FBST is a powerful Bayesian test for precise hypothesis, as an alternative to frequentist's significance tests (characterized by the calculation of the \emph{p-value}).
Endogenous Sunk Cost, Quality Competition and Welfare  [PDF]
George S. Ford, Michael Stern
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2011.13018
Abstract: Competition in quality with escalating levels of endogenous sunk costs may produce levels of concentration even higher than expected in their absence. We show that consumers may very well benefit from such expenditures despite the effects on concentration and likely attenuation of price competition.
Esparsidade, Estrutura, Escalamento e Estabilidade em Algebra Linear Computacional
Julio M. Stern
Mathematics , 2011,
Abstract: Sparsity, Structure, Scaling and Stability in Computational Linear Algebra - Textbook from the IX School of Computer Science, held on July 24-31 of 1994 at Recife, Brazil. Esparsidade, Estrutura, Escalamento e Estabilidade em Algebra Linear Computacional - Livro texto da IX Escola de Computacao, realizada nos dias 24 a 31 de Julho de 1994 em Recife, Brasil. This textbook is written in Portuguese Language.
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