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We examine the long run neutrality of money, (LMN, hereafter), in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA) countries, applying Fisher and Seater (1993) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology, using different monetary aggregates, money supply in the strict sense (M1), money supply in the large sense (M2) and domestic credit (credit to private sector) during the period 1978-2008. Tests consistently reject the LMN hypothesis. It is found that monetary aggregates have significant and positive impacts on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for all EMCCA countries. The results are robust under various sub-periods and the estimated coefficients are stable under two breakpoints corresponding to the dates of central bank reforms and devaluation of the local currency.
We examine the long run neutrality of
money, in Central Africa Monetary and Economic Union (CAMEU) economies applying
the multivariate methodology of King and Watson, using M2 and real output
during the period 1970-2008. Tests consistently reject the long run money
neutrality hypothesis. It is found that M2 has significant and positive impacts
on real output of all CAMEU countries except for Gabon. The results are robust under
other monetary aggregate variables and various sub-periods. In addition, the
estimated coefficients are stable under two breakpoints corresponding to the dates of central bank
reforms and devaluation of the local currency.
This article identifies cycles of Gabon GDP,
those of its main components (consumption, investment, government spending, exports
and imports), and their characteristics (duration, severity and depth), using a
band-pass filter and according to the algorithm of Bry and Boschan. Synchronization
and the concordance of the cycles of GDP and those of its components are highlighted.
Similarly, the contributions of cycles of variables that make up the GDP to the
cycles of this greatness are studied according to Stock and Watson’s way (1998).