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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 252497 matches for " Geraldo da Silva e Souza "
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Significancia de efeitos técnicos na eficiência de produ??o da pesquisa agropecuária
Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;
Revista Brasileira de Economia , 2006, DOI: 10.1590/S0034-71402006000100005
Abstract: this article uses censored and truncated statistical models to assess technical effects potentially affecting the production frontier of embrapa's (empresa brasileira de pesquisa agropecuária) research centers. specifically the article assesses the significance of the factors level of research funds generated externally to the national treasury, actions of partnership, technical quality of research projects, client satisfaction, change in administration, type and size on the measurement of technical efficiency of the research centers. efficiency measures are computed both using data envelopment analysis (dea) and stochastic frontier methods. it is concluded that the dea efficiency measurements provide more information regarding the assessment of technical effects and that revenue generation, actions of partnership, technical quality of projects, and size are significant factors. the statistical analysis leading to these results fits a tobit model, defined by a distribution in the gamma family, to dea technical efficiency measurements. this analysis is consistent with the fit of a truncated normal distribution to residuals obtained from the fit of a dea production function.
Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Some Empirical Evidence  [PDF]
Tito Belchior Silva Moreira, Geraldo da Silva e Souza, Fernando Ant?nio Ribeiro Soares
Modern Economy (ME) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/me.2011.23045
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the impact of government debt on economic growth for a balanced panel of G7 countries over the period 1990-2008. We found empirical evidence that Ricardian Equivalence does not holds in general. The analysis indicates that only Germany shows a negative association between public debt and economic growth. The US and France show Ricardian equivalence and UK, Japan, Italy and Canada show a positive association.
Wanda Fritsch da Silva e Souza,Geraldo da Silva e Souza
Engevista , 2007,
Abstract: We use Principal Components to derive linear indices with the objective toevaluate the importance of Brazilian ports in regard to the characteristics of Infra-Structure, Operational Results, Geo-economic Aspects, and Projected Demand for the year2011. Ranks, normalized by the maximum rank, of the port scores in each of thoseconstructs are used as inputs and outputs in Data Envelopment Analysis models ofmulticriteria evaluation to classify the Brazilian ports according their importance. Thisordination is original, has a non subjective basis and may be used to set priorities in thecontext of resource allocations in the context of the ports support to the Brazilian foreigntrade.
Eliane Gon?alves Gomes,Geraldo da Silva e Souza
Engevista , 2010,
Abstract: In this paper we use a Zero Sum Gains Data Envelopment Analysis model (ZSG-DEA) to allocate financial resources for competitive projects managed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) research centers. The initial output measurement in the production process modeled is the amount of financial resources available, uniformly distributed among research centers. The input variables are proxies for the intensity of projects externally funded, quality of project management, and level of participation in complex researches. The allocation proposed has maximum global efficiency.
Influência de variáveis contextuais em medidas n?o-paramétricas de eficiência: uma aplica??o com métodos de reamostragem
Souza, Mirian Oliveira de;Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;Staub, Roberta Blass;
Pesquisa Operacional , 2009, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-74382009000200003
Abstract: we evaluate three bootstrap techniques for the statistical analysis of a non parametric production model for which a dea measure of efficiency is potentially affected by a set of exogenous factors. the application of interest relates to the assessment of the significance of the contextual variables income generation, processes improvement, intensity of partnerships, type and size on the technical efficiencies of embrapa's research centers. it is concluded that the bootstrap of the maximum likelihood estimator provides the best fit from the point of view of pearson correlation between observed and predicted values and is the most informative in regard to the significance of the variables considered. with the exception of size all contextual variables are statistically significant. income generation, processes improvement and intensity of partnerships are all positively associated with technical efficiency.
Previs?es para o mercado de carnes
Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;Souza, Mirian Oliveira de;Marques, Daniela Vieira;Gazzola, Rosaura;Marra, Renner;
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural , 2011, DOI: 10.1590/S0103-20032011000200009
Abstract: this work aimed to present brazilian forecasts of production, consumption, exports and export average price of meat (beef, pork and poultry). forecasts were generated using the markovian representation (state space) model and an autoregressive integrated moving average (arima). annual growth rates were also calculated. series observed involve the period from 1972 to 2009 and the analysis of the forecasts involves the period from 2010 to 2020. the forecasts of the products are well adjusted to the observations. according to the results, brazil showed a growth trend in all the analyzed variables. it is concluded that the brazilian meat market indicates good perspectives of strengthening in world terms, especially for poultry.
Credibilidade e crises cambiais: uma aplica??o do modelo de Velasco
Menezes, Adriano Campos;Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva;Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;
Economia Aplicada , 2005, DOI: 10.1590/S1413-80502005000300006
Abstract: this paper analyzes the currency crises of the south american countries during the period from 1992 to 1998, based on the velasco (1996) model. this is a model that synthesizes two approaches: speculative attacks resulting from unbalanced macroeconomics fundamentals and resulting from self-fulfilling prophecies, even when the economies show good fundamentals. nine latin american countries are classified by means of a loss function index. thus, it is possible to classify the countries by the degree of vulnerability to the crises, establishing zones of credibility. the results indicate that the brazilian economy, since it shows problems in its macroeconomic fundamentals, was classified in the zone of null credibility. argentina moves from a zone of high credibility to an intermediate or partial zone. this is an indication that argentina became susceptible to self-fulfilling crises. all other countries were classified in the zone of high credibility.
Uma metodologia alternativa para mensura??o de press?o sobre o mercado de cambio
Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva;Pinto, Maurício Barata de Paula;Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;
Estudos Econ?micos (S?o Paulo) , 2004, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-41612004000100003
Abstract: this article applies multivariate analysis to measure the exchange market pressures in 20 countries, in the context of the asian crisis of 1997/98. we develop an index of pressure on the exchange market as a weighted average of exchange rate changes, reserve changes and interest rates changes. changes in the exchange rate enter with positive weights, changes in reserves have negative weights and changes in interest rates have positive weights. these weights are derived from a measure of the communality of each variable used in the analysis. using a exchange market pressure index we classify the sample, identifying by ward's method of cluster analysis, the countries most affected by the crisis initiated in mid 1997. the classification is validated with the use of discriminant analysis.
Potential improvement of agricultural output for major producers based on dea efficiency measurements
Souza, Geraldo da Silva e;Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva;Gomes, Eliane Gon?alves;
Pesquisa Operacional , 2011, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-74382011000100006
Abstract: in this article we perform production efficiency analysis for the 40 countries with largest value added by agricultural sector in 2005. under the assumption of a nonparametric frontier and production observations satisfying a statistical model including both random and inefficiency errors, we estimate an agricultural production function using dea measures of efficiency with output orientation and variable returns to scale. we found evidence that the set of countries investigated could increase their total value added by agricultural sector for at least 53.9% without increasing input usage with the prevailing technology. this result has a direct impact on issues related to the recent food crisis
Crises gêmeas nos mercados emergentes: América Latina x Leste Asiático
Tito Belchior Silva Moreira,Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto,Geraldo da Silva e Souza
Nova Economia , 2004,
Abstract: This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as "twin crises", adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries in the context of the East Asian crisis. Based on the crisis index regarding data from 1996, the most vulnerable countries of the twin crises can be ordered and identified a year before the onset of the crises. East Asian countries, in contrast with Latin American countries, were identified as the most vulnerable to twin crises.
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