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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 26420 matches for " Frederico Araújo Turolla "
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Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
Turolla,Frederico Araújo; Margarido,Mário Ant?nio;
Economia Global e Gest?o , 2011,
Abstract: in this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the foreign direct investment (fdi) flows into brazil have a moving average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. we have modeled the fdi series in us dollars using a univariate model, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (arima) model. the results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a moving average pattern in fdi inflows into brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. the patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. we present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the theil coefficient.
Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA Modelagem e previs o do investimento direto no Brasil com ARIMA
Frederico Araújo Turolla,Mário Ant?nio Margarido
Economia Global e Gest?o , 2011,
Abstract: In this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Brazil have a Moving Average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. We have modeled the FDI series in US dollars using a univariate model, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a Moving Average pattern in FDI inflows into Brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. The patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. We present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the Theil Coefficient. Neste artigo, foi testada a hipótese de que os fluxos de Investimento Direto Estrangeiro (IDE) para o Brasil apresentam um padr o de Médias Móveis, em linha com as previs es da teoria. Foi modelada a série de IDE em dólares norte-americanos usando um modelo univariado, o Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Os resultados confirmaram a hipótese derivada da teoria de que há um padr o de Médias Móveis no IDE no Brasil, na medida em que se trata de uma série bastante dinamica com ajustamento relativamente rápido em rela o aos valores de equilíbrio. Com base no padr o identificado, o trabalho também mostrou a possibilidade de gera o de previs es de fluxos de IDE e apresentou uma previs o, discutindo a quest o de exatid o de proje es usando o coeficiente de Theil.
Viabilidade da regula??o subnacional dos servi?os de abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário sob a Lei 11.445/2007
Galv?o Junior, Alceu de Castro;Turolla, Frederico Araújo;Paganini, Wanderley da Silva;
Engenharia Sanitaria e Ambiental , 2008, DOI: 10.1590/S1413-41522008000200003
Abstract: the objective of this paper is to discuss the feasibility and the alternatives for the sub-national regulation of the basic sanitation in brazil, as established one in the law 11.445/2007. we analyze a sample of 2.523 municipalities from the data set of the national system for information on water supply and sewerage services (snis) of 2005, assuming regulatory fees ranging between 1% and 3% of the concessionaire?s revenues. we concluded that local regulation was impracticable for 97% of the municipalities in the sample.
Intermodal Competition in the Brazilian Interstate Travel Market
Frederico Ara?ojo Turolla,Mois??s Diniz Vassallo,Alessandro Vin?-cius Marques de Oliveira
Revista de Análisis Económico (RAE) , 2008,
Abstract: This paper presents a test of intermodal interaction between coaches and airlines in Brazil in order to check for the efficacy of recent liberalization measures designed to promote competition in both industries. Interstate travel service in the country is heavily provided by coaches, and the system is fully operated by the private sector under public delegation through permits and authorizations. Agency-based regulation was introduced in 2002 along with a price cap regime aimed at enhancing the flexibility to change fares in response to demand and cost conditions. By making use of a reaction function-based model of coach operators’ pricing decisions in the interstate travel market, we then estimate the sensitivity of the changes in coach fares to the changes in airline fares in a simultaneous-equation framework. Intermodal interaction among coach operators and airlines is found to be highly significant and probably due to the competition for a small but increasing set of premium, quality-sensitive, coach passengers.
Uso da caneta injetora de insulina no tratamento do diabetes mellitus tipo 1
Maia, Frederico F.R.;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Jornal de Pediatria , 2002, DOI: 10.1590/S0021-75572002000300004
Abstract: objective: the objective of this review was to evaluate the medical literature in the last ten years comparing the use of insulin pen injectors versus insulin syringes in children with type 1 diabetes. sources: this is a review of literature in the last ten years based on medline. summary of the findings: the use of the insulin pen injector is disseminated all over the world. most studies show that this method is more comfortable and makes patients? life easier. it is associated to better glycemic control, it is more easily accepted and is related to the reduction of hypoglycemic crisis. the use of the insulin pen injector provided better quality of life to this group of patients. conclusions: the new technology produces different methods of insulin administration trying to improve the quality of life of diabetic patients and to reduce the risks of short term complications through the use of insulin pen injectors. the effects of this kind of insulin delivery with the aim of preventing chronic complications are not well established.
Acurácia, utilidade e complica??es da monitoriza??o subcutanea contínua da glicose (CGMS) em pacientes pediátricos com diabetes tipo 1
Maia, Frederico F. R.;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Jornal de Pediatria , 2005, DOI: 10.1590/S0021-75572005000500006
Abstract: objective: to evaluate the accuracy, utility and complications of continuous glucose monitoring system in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes. methods: this retrospective study assessed 16 type 1 diabetic patients (16.12±4.41 years) submitted to continuous glucose monitoring system (medtronic; northridge, ca) for 72 hours. the following parameters were analyzed: mean capillary glucose level and mean glucose value measured by the continuous glucose monitoring system; glucose excursions (continuous glucose monitoring system vs. capillary glucose measurement), postprandial hyperglycemia (nr < 140 mg/dl), nocturnal hypoglycemia, complications (trauma, local infection, disconnection) and therapeutic management after continuous glucose monitoring. a1c levels were measured at the beginning and after 3 months of the study. results: the mean capillary glucose values were 214.3±66.5 mg/dl vs. 207.6±54.6 mg/dl by continuous glucose monitoring system, with a significant correlation (p = 0.001). the correlation coefficient and mean absolute error were 0.86±0.21 and 12.6% of the median, respectively. the continuous glucose monitoring system was significantly more efficient in detecting glucose excursion than fingerstick capillary blood sampling (p = 0.04; w = 74), and postprandial hyperglycemia was identified in 60% of type 1 diabetic patients with a median value of 157 mg/dl (< 140 mg/dl). nocturnal hypoglycemia was detected in 46.7% of these patients. the evaluation of a1c levels in eight (50%) patients before continuous glucose monitoring and after 3 months showed a significantly lower level of a1c in this population (8.18±1.5 vs. 7.28±1.3; p = 0.034). the therapeutic management of type 1 diabetes was changed in 100% of patients. no complications were detected in 93.7% of patients. conclusions: the continuous glucose monitoring system showed to be a very safe, well-tolerated and highly accurate method, with a low complication rate. it is a good method to identify glu
Acurácia, efeitos na terapia insulínica e controle glicêmico e complica??es do sistema de monitoriza??o contínua da glicose em pacientes com diabetes mellitus tipo 1
Maia, Frederico F.R.;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia & Metabologia , 2005, DOI: 10.1590/S0004-27302005000400015
Abstract: to evaluate the efficacy, safety and complications of continuous glucose monitoring system (cgms) in type 1 diabetic patients (dm1), we retrospectively studied 30 patients (25.8 ± 12.2 years) submitted to 72hs cgms (medtronic; northridge, ca) and analyzed: mean self monitoring blood glucose (smbg) and mean cgms sensor?s glycemic value; correlation coefficient (%), median absolute percent difference (mad%), number of sensor reading, glycemic excursions (cgms vs. smbg), complications (trauma, local infection, disconnection) and therapeutic management after cgms. a1c levels were measured 1 month before and 3 months after the study. mean capillary glucose values were 186.5 ± 43.3mg/dl vs. 179.7 ± 48.1mg/dl by cgms sensor, with significant correlation (p= 0.001). an average of 772.4 ± 254.1 (vr > 680) glucose measurements was recorded for each patient, with 68.7 ± 19.8hs of exam. correlation coefficient was 0.86 ± 0.21 (vr > 0.79). median absolute percent difference between sensor and glucometer values was 13.9 ± 4.7% (vr < 28%). the cgms was significant more efficient in detection of glycemic excursion related to capillary glycemia (p= 0.009). this data showed important decreased level of a1c in this population 3 months after the cgms with statistical significance (p= 0.018). no complications were registered in 96.7% of patients. no trauma, local infection or bleeding were registered. the insulin therapeutic regimen was adjusted in 100% of patients. the cgms showed to be a very safety method, well tolerated, with high accuracy in glycemic values and low complications rate. this method has to be more stimulated by physicians and patients.
Uso da monitoriza??o contínua de glicose (CGMS) por quatro (96 horas) ou cinco (120 horas) dias em pacientes com DM1: existe vantagem?
Maia, Frederico F. R.;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia & Metabologia , 2008, DOI: 10.1590/S0004-27302008000300010
Abstract: background: to evaluate the accuracy, complications and impact in glycemic control in type 1 diabetic patients (dm1) submitted to 4 or 5 days of cgms. methods: we studied 36 dm1 patients (44.5%m/55.5%f), in three groups without no difference about age, dm duration and a1c levels (p < 0.05), submitted to 72h (g1), 96h (g2) and 120h (g3) cgms profile. it were analyzed: capillary glycemia (cg) and mean cgms sensor?s glycemic value; correlation coefficient, median absolute percent difference (mad%), number of sensor reading, complications (trauma, local infection, disconnection, dropped), postprandial hyperglycemia, unrecognized hypoglycemia (< 70 mg/dl). a1c levels were measured at the start (1 month before) and after 3 and 12 months in each group. results: no technical difference were observed into 3 groups: correlation coefficient > 0.79 and mad < 28% in 95% (p < 0.01). the use of cgms sensor more than 72h was not related to signal error, trauma, local infection or disconnection. the mean capillary glucose values showed no difference by glucose cgms sensor (p = 0.01) in all groups. the nighttime episodes of hypoglycemia lasted longer (min) than daytime episodes in all groups (p = 0.05). the postprandial hyperglycemia was statistically identified in groups 1 and 3. this data showed significant decreased a1c level three months after the cgms in g1 (72h) and g3 (120h) (p < 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively), which sustained after 1 year (p < 0.001 e p = 0.047, respectively). conclusions: the cgms showed to be a very safety method, with high accuracy/technical efficacy in patients undergoing 96 h and 120 h of cgms. we do not observed advantages in the use of cgms during 96 h or 120 h against 72 h in decrease a1c levels after 3 and 12 months. it is possible the use of cgms > 72h, with no technical damage. however, we do not observed significant clinical benefits of this conduct in dm1 patients.
Aspectos psicológicos e controle glicêmico de um grupo de pacientes com Diabetes Mellitus tipo 1 em Minas Gerais
Maia, Frederico F.R.;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia & Metabologia , 2004, DOI: 10.1590/S0004-27302004000200009
Abstract: psychological aspects and patients' acceptance of type 1 diabetes (dm1) may exercise some influence in their glycemic control. in this project the influence of psychological aspects were evaluated on glycemic control of dm1 patients. a retrospective study of participants from diabetes weekend (dw), an educational project in dm1 was carried out in minas gerais. in a sample of 150 subjects (66m/84f, 21.6±13.5 years and duration of dm of 8.5±7.9 years) we analyzed: type of insulin, insulin delivery, insulin dose per day and insulin dose per day in dw, psychological profile, capillary glycemia and previous history of convulsion crisis, severe hypoglycemia or diabetic ketoacidosis (cad). glucose was monitored 4 times a day by a digital glucose monitor. 20.9% of the patients with dm1 felt very well (g1); 39.5% well (g2), 25.6% with difficult glycemic control (g3), 9.3% trying to accept (g4) and 4.7% reported to be very bad about their dm1. the average capillary glycemia (acg, in mg/dl) was significantly lower in g1 than in the others (169.8; g2: 182.3; g3: 199.3; g4: 200.7). there were no significant association of this psychological aspects and previous history of cad, hypoglycemia or convulsion crisis. dm1 duration over 5 years was associated to lower acceptance of the disease (p= 0.017) and age of patients (p= 0.000). 13.9% of patients reported to be ashamed of their disease; the acg was significantly higher in this group as compared to others (246.2 vs. 178.1; p= 0.007). in 91 patients (60.4%) who mention to have apprehension of feeling sick in public the acg was significantly higher (200.4 vs. 184.5; p= 0.014). the systematic glucose monitoring showed positive association between psychological aspects and worse glycemic control. the psychological and multidisciplinary approach of dm1 patients is very important to try to improve the metabolic control, to prevent future complications, which results in better quality of life for these patients.
A hipoglicemia silenciosa é parte do controle glicêmico ideal em pacientes com DM1? - tempo de hipoglicemia pelo CGMS versus média glicêmica
Maia, Frederico Fernandes Ribeiro;Araújo, Levimar R.;
Arquivos Brasileiros de Endocrinologia & Metabologia , 2008, DOI: 10.1590/S0004-27302008000600010
Abstract: background: to evaluate the impact of silent hypoglycemic state in glycemic control in type 1 diabetic patients (dm1) by cgms. methods: 87 dm1 patients (45%m/55%f) submitted to a 72h cgms profile were classified in 4 groups. it was analyzed: unrecognized hypoglycemia (<70mg/dl); duration time of silent hypoglycemia in which patients were classified into g1 (<5%), g2 (5-10%), g3 (10-20%) and g4 (>20%) of hypoglycemic state by cgms; a1c and mean capillary glucose (mcg) in each group. results: the silent hypoglycemia was detected in 64.5% of patients and nighttime episodes of hypoglycemia lasted longer (min) than daytime episodes in all groups (p<0.001). it was verified 41.4% of patients under than 5% of time in hypoglycemic state, 21.8% between 5-10%, 23% between 10-20% and 13.8% with more than 20% of cgms in silent hypoglycemia. this data showed significant decreased in mcg when the duration time of silent hypoglycemia was longer (p=0.006). conclusion: the silent hypoglycemia is common in dm1 patients and most frequently in night time period. to take an average glycemia of 120-160mg/dl in these patients, it was necessary a 10-20% of cgms period in silent hypoglycemia in these patients.
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