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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 266375 matches for " David C. Lye "
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Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies
Vernon J Lee, David C Lye, Annelies Wilder-Smith
BMC Medicine , 2009, DOI: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-76
Abstract: We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical.Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza.Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction). Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.Many countries have developed pandemic preparedness plans in response to the threat from pandemic influenza [1], to attempt containment of the virus or to reduce the pandemic's impact. The influe
Clinical Relevance and Discriminatory Value of Elevated Liver Aminotransferase Levels for Dengue Severity
Linda K. Lee ,Victor C. Gan,Vernon J. Lee,Adriana S. Tan,Yee Sin Leo,David C. Lye
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001676
Abstract: Background Elevation of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is prominent in acute dengue illness. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines defined AST or ALT≥1000 units/liter (U/L) as a criterion for severe dengue. We aimed to assess the clinical relevance and discriminatory value of AST or ALT for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and severe dengue. Methodology/Principal Findings We retrospectively studied and classified polymerase chain reaction positive dengue patients from 2006 to 2008 treated at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore according to WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria for dengue severity. Of 690 dengue patients, 31% had DHF and 24% severe dengue. Elevated AST and ALT occurred in 86% and 46%, respectively. Seven had AST or ALT≥1000 U/L. None had acute liver failure but one patient died. Median AST and ALT values were significantly higher with increasing dengue severity by both WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria. However, they were poorly discriminatory between non-severe and severe dengue (e.g., AST area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve = 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.67) and between dengue fever (DF) and DHF (AST area under the ROC curve = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.52–0.61). There was significant overlap in AST and ALT values among patients with dengue with or without warning signs and severe dengue, and between those with DF and DHF. Conclusions Although aminotransferase levels increased in conjunction with dengue severity, AST or ALT values did not discriminate between DF and DHF or non-severe and severe dengue.
Detection of Genetically Altered Copper Levels in Drosophila Tissues by Synchrotron X-Ray Fluorescence Microscopy
Jessica C. Lye, Joab E. C. Hwang, David Paterson, Martin D. de Jonge, Daryl L. Howard, Richard Burke
PLOS ONE , 2011, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0026867
Abstract: Tissue-specific manipulation of known copper transport genes in Drosophila tissues results in phenotypes that are presumably due to an alteration in copper levels in the targeted cells. However direct confirmation of this has to date been technically challenging. Measures of cellular copper content such as expression levels of copper-responsive genes or cuproenzyme activity levels, while useful, are indirect. First-generation copper-sensitive fluorophores show promise but currently lack the sensitivity required to detect subtle changes in copper levels. Moreover such techniques do not provide information regarding other relevant biometals such as zinc or iron. Traditional techniques for measuring elemental composition such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy are not sensitive enough for use with the small tissue amounts available in Drosophila research. Here we present synchrotron x-ray fluorescence microscopy analysis of two different Drosophila tissues, the larval wing imaginal disc, and sectioned adult fly heads and show that this technique can be used to detect changes in tissue copper levels caused by targeted manipulation of known copper homeostasis genes.
Implications of Discordance in World Health Organization 1997 and 2009 Dengue Classifications in Adult Dengue
Victor C. Gan, David C. Lye, Tun L. Thein, Frederico Dimatatac, Adriana S. Tan, Yee-Sin Leo
PLOS ONE , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0060946
Abstract: Background Revised dengue guidelines were published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2009 addressing severe dengue cases not classified by dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and shock syndrome (DSS). Methods and Principal Findings We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare WHO 2009 and 1997 classifications using 1278 adult dengue cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction assay from Singapore epidemics in 2004 and 2007 (predominantly serotype 1 and 2 respectively).DHF occurred in 14.3%, DSS 2.7% and severe dengue 16.0%. The two WHO dengue classifications were discordant in defining severe disease (p<0.001). Five DSS patients (15%) were classified as non-severe dengue without warning signs. Of severe dengue patients, 107 did not fulfil DHF criteria. Of these, 14.9% had self-resolving isolated elevated aminotransferases, 18.7% gastrointestinal bleeding without hemodynamic compromise and 56.1% plasma leakage with isolated tachycardia. We compared both guidelines against requirement for intensive care including the single death in this series: all six had severe dengue; only four had DHF as two lacked bleeding manifestations but had plasma leakage. Increasing length of hospitalization was noted among severe cases with both classifications but the trend was only statistically significant for WHO 2009. Length of hospitalization was significantly longer for severe plasma leakage compared with severe bleeding or organ impairment. Requirement for hospitalization increased using WHO 2009 from 17.0% to 51.3%. Conclusions While the WHO 2009 dengue classification is clinically useful, we propose retaining criteria for plasma leakage and hemodynamic compromise from WHO 1997, and refining definitions of severe bleeding and organ impairment to improve clinical relevance having found that differences in these accounted for the discordance between classifications. Findings from our retrospective study may be limited by the study site - a tertiary referral center in a hyperendemic country - and should be evaluated in a wider range of geographic settings.
Diabetes with Hypertension as Risk Factors for Adult Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in a Predominantly Dengue Serotype 2 Epidemic: A Case Control Study
Junxiong Pang ,Agus Salim,Vernon J. Lee,Martin L. Hibberd,Kee Seng Chia,Yee Sin Leo,David C. Lye
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001641
Abstract: Background Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage. A number of DHF risk factors had been suggested. However, these risk factors may not be generalized to all populations and epidemics for screening and clinical management of patients at risk of developing DHF. This study explored demographic and comorbidity risk factors for DHF in adult dengue epidemics in Singapore in year 2006 (predominantly serotype 1) and in year 2007–2008 (predominantly serotype 2). Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted with 149 DHF and 326 dengue fever (DF) patients from year 2006, and 669 DHF and 1,141 DF patients from year 2007–2008. Demographic and reported comorbidity data were collected from patients previously. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between DHF and demographic and co-morbidities for year 2006 and year 2007–2008, respectively. Results Only Chinese (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–3.56) was independently associated with DHF in year 2006. In contrast, age groups of 30–39 years (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), 40–49 years (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), female (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI:1.28–1.94), Chinese (AOR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.24–2.24), diabetes (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI:1.06–2.97), and diabetes with hypertension (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI:1.18–3.96) were independently associated with DHF in year 2007–2008. Hypertension was proposed to have effect modification on the risk of DHF outcome in dengue patients with diabetes. Chinese who had diabetes with hypertension had 2.1 (95% CI:1.07–4.12) times higher risk of DHF compared with Chinese who had no diabetes and no hypertension. Conclusions Adult dengue patients in Singapore who were 30–49 years, Chinese, female, had diabetes or diabetes with hypertension were at greater risk of developing DHF during epidemic of predominantly serotype 2. These risk factors can be used to guide triaging of patients who require closer clinical monitoring and early hospitalization in Singapore, when confirmed in more studies.
Confirmed adult dengue deaths in Singapore: 5-year multi-center retrospective study
Yee-Sin Leo, Tun L Thein, Dale A Fisher, Jenny G Low, Helen M Oh, Rajmohan L Narayanan, Victor C Gan, Vernon J Lee, David C Lye
BMC Infectious Diseases , 2011, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-123
Abstract: We conducted a multi-center retrospective chart review of all confirmed adult dengue deaths in Singapore from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008.Of 28 adult dengue deaths, median age was 59 years. Male gender comprised 67.9% and co-morbidities existed in 75%. From illness onset, patients presented for admission at a median of 4 days and death occurred at a median of 12 days. Intensive care admission was required in 71.4%. Probable dengue was diagnosed in 32.1% by WHO 1997 criteria and 78.6% by WHO 2009. The earliest warning sign was persistent vomiting at a median of 1.5 days. Hematocrit change ≥20% concurrent with platelet count <20 × 10^9/L was associated with the shortest interval to death at a median of 3 days. Only 35.7% of death cases fulfilled DHF criteria by WHO 1997 versus severe dengue in 100.0% by WHO 2009 criteria. Deaths were due to shock and organ failure. Acute renal impairment occurred in 71.4%, impaired consciousness 57.1% and severe hepatitis 53.6%.In our adult fatal dengue cohort, WHO 2009 criteria had higher sensitivity in diagnosing probable dengue and severe dengue compared with WHO 1997. As warning signs, persistent vomiting occurred early and hematocrit change ≥20% concurrent with platelet count <20 × 10^9/L preceded death most closely.Dengue is the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in humans. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that 1.8 billion people, or more than 70% of the global at-risk population, live in the WHO Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific regions which account for nearly 75% of current global disease burden from dengue [1]. Singapore, a developed island city-state in Southeast Asia has experienced resurgent dengue epidemics since the 1990s after previous decades of vector control effectively reduced the Aedes house index [2]. In addition, dengue infections in Singapore in recent years have shifted from primarily a childhood disease to that of adults [2]. With this resurgence, the classification of d
Utilities and Limitations of the World Health Organization 2009 Warning Signs for Adult Dengue Severity
Tun-Linn Thein equal contributor ,Victor C. Gan equal contributor,David C. Lye,Chee-Fu Yung,Yee-Sin Leo
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002023
Abstract: Background In 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed seven warning signs (WS) as criteria for hospitalization and predictors of severe dengue (SD). We assessed their performance for predicting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and SD in adult dengue. Method DHF, WS and SD were defined according to the WHO 1997 and 2009 dengue guidelines. We analyzed the prevalence, sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of WS before DHF and SD onset. Results Of 1507 cases, median age was 35 years (5th–95th percentile, 17–60), illness duration on admission 4 days (5th–95th percentile, 2–6) and length of hospitalization 5 days (5th–95th percentile, 3–7). DHF occurred in 298 (19.5%) and SD in 248 (16.5%). Of these, WS occurred before DHF in 124 and SD in 65 at median of two days before DHF or SD. Three commonest warning signs were lethargy, abdominal pain/tenderness and mucosal bleeding. No single WS alone or combined had Sn >64% in predicting severe disease. Specificity was >90% for both DHF and SD with persistent vomiting, hepatomegaly, hematocrit rise and rapid platelet drop, clinical fluid accumulation, and any 3 or 4 WS. Any one of seven WS had 96% Sn but only 18% Sp for SD. Conclusions No WS was highly sensitive in predicting subsequent DHF or SD in our confirmed adult dengue cohort. Persistent vomiting, hepatomegaly, hematocrit rise and rapid platelet drop, and clinical fluid accumulation, as well as any 3 or 4 WS were highly specific for DHF or SD.
Risk Factors for Fatality among Confirmed Adult Dengue Inpatients in Singapore: A Matched Case-Control Study
Tun-Linn Thein, Yee-Sin Leo, Dale A. Fisher, Jenny G. Low, Helen M. L. Oh, Victor C. Gan, Joshua G. X. Wong, David C. Lye
PLOS ONE , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081060
Abstract: Objectives To identify demographic, clinical and laboratory risk factors for death due to dengue fever in adult patients in Singapore. Methods Multi-center retrospective study of hospitalized adult patients with confirmed dengue fever in Singapore between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2008. Non-fatal controls were selected by matching age and year of infection with fatal cases. World Health Organization 1997, 2009 criteria were applied to define dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), warning signs and severe dengue. Statistical significance was assessed by conditional logistic regression modeling. Results Significantly more fatal cases than matched controls had pre-existing co-morbid conditions, and presented with abdominal pain/tenderness. Median pulse rates were significantly higher while myalgia was significantly less frequent in cases. . Fatal cases also had higher leucocyte counts, platelet counts, serum sodium, potassium, urea, creatine and bilirubin levels on admission compared to controls. There was no statistical significant difference between the prevalence of DHF and hematocrit level among cases and controls. Multivariate analysis showed myalgia and leucocyte count at presentation were independent predictors of fatality (adjusted odds ratios 0.09 and 2.94 respectively). None of the controls was admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) or given blood transfusion, while 71.4% and 28.6% of fatal cases received ICU admission and blood transfusion. Conclusions Absence of myalgia and leucocytosis on admission were independently associated with fatality in our matched case-control study. Fatalities were also commonly associated with co-morbidities and clinicians should be alarmed if dengue patients fulfilled severe dengue case definition on admission.
Challenges in Dengue Fever in the Elderly: Atypical Presentation and Risk of Severe Dengue and Hospita-Acquired Infection
Emily K. Rowe ,Yee-Sin Leo,Joshua G. X. Wong,Tun-Linn Thein,Victor C. Gan,Linda K. Lee,David C. Lye
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 2014, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002777
Abstract: Background/methods To better understand dengue fever in the elderly, we compared clinical features, World Health Organization (WHO) dengue classification and outcomes between adult (<60) and elderly (≥60) dengue patients. We explored the impact of co-morbidity and hospital-acquired infection (HAI) on clinical outcomes in the elderly. All patients managed at the Communicable Disease Centre, Singapore, between 2005 and 2008 with positive dengue polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or who fulfilled WHO 1997 or 2009 probable dengue criteria with positive dengue IgM were included. Results Of the 6989 cases, 295 (4.4%) were elderly. PCR was positive in 29%. The elderly suffered more severe disease with more dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) (29.2% vs. 21.4%) and severe dengue (SD) (20.3% vs. 14.6%) (p<0.05). Classic dengue symptoms were more common in the adult group. The elderly were less likely to fulfill WHO 1997 (93.6% vs. 96.4%) (p = 0.014), but not WHO 2009 probable dengue (75.3% vs. 71.5%). Time to dengue diagnosis was similar. There was no significant difference in the frequency of warning signs between the two groups, but the elderly were more likely to have hepatomegaly (p = 0.006) and malaise/lethargy (p = 0.033) while the adults had significantly more mucosal bleeding (p<0.001). Intensive care admission occurred in 15 and death in three, with no age difference. Notably, the elderly stayed in hospital longer (median 5 vs. 4 days), and suffered more pneumonia (3.8% vs. 0.7%) and urinary infection (1.9% vs. 0.3%) (p = 0.003). Predictors of excess length of stay were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–2.88), critical illness (aOR 5.13, 95%CI 2.59–9.75), HAI (aOR 12.06, 95%CI 7.39–19.9), Charlson score (aOR 6.9, 95%CI 2.02–22.56) and severe dengue (DHF/dengue shock syndrome/SD) (aOR 2.24, 95%CI 1.83–2.74). Conclusion Elderly dengue patients present atypically and are at higher risk of DHF, SD and HAI. Aside from dengue severity, age, co-morbidity and HAI were associated with longer hospital stay.
Predictive Value of Proteinuria in Adult Dengue Severity
Farhad F. Vasanwala equal contributor,Tun-Linn Thein equal contributor,Yee-Sin Leo ,Victor C. Gan,Ying Hao,Linda K. Lee,David C. Lye
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , 2014, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002712
Abstract: Background Dengue is an important viral infection with different presentations. Predicting disease severity is important in triaging patients requiring hospital care. We aim to study the value of proteinuria in predicting the development of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), utility of urine dipstick test as a rapid prognostic tool. Methodology and principal findings Adult patients with undifferentiated fever (n = 293) were prospectively enrolled at the Infectious Disease Research Clinic at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from January to August 2012. Dengue infection was confirmed in 168 (57%) by dengue RT-PCR or NS1 antigen detection. Dengue cases had median fever duration of 6 days at enrolment. DHF was diagnosed in 34 cases according to the WHO 1997 guideline. Dengue fever (DF) patients were predominantly younger and were mostly seen in the outpatient setting with higher platelet level. Compared to DF, DHF cases had significantly higher peak urine protein creatinine ratio (UPCR) during clinical course (26 vs. 40 mg/mmol; p<0.001). We obtained a UPCR cut-off value of 29 mg/mmol based on maximum AUC in ROC curves of peak UPCR for DF versus DHF, corresponding to 76% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Multivariate analysis with other readily available clinical and laboratory variables increased the AUC to 0.91 with 92% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Neither urine dipstick at initial presentation nor peak urine dipstick value during the entire illness was able to discriminate between DF and DHF. Conclusions Proteinuria measured by a laboratory-based UPCR test may be sensitive and specific in prognosticating adult dengue patients.
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