In the present study, we investigated the effect of regulatory focus on bias in memory for task duration. Specifically, whether or not a person’s motivational outlook, seeking gains or avoiding losses, would cause them to over- or underestimate task duration. Eighty-four college students completed an origami task for which motivational focus (gains or losses), experience with the task and amount of attention directed to the task were manipulated. Participants with a focus on seeking gains tended to remember the task as taking less time when their attention was drawn towards the details of the task instead of away from the task than did participants in the other conditions. It seems that this effect occurred because participants with a focus for seeking gains did not sufficiently account for the fact that drawing attention toward the task caused them to take longer on the task than on previous trials.

Abstract:
We describe the combinatorial stochastic process underlying a sequence of conditionally independent Bernoulli processes with a shared beta process hazard measure. As shown by Thibaux and Jordan [TJ07], in the special case when the underlying beta process has a constant concentration function and a finite and nonatomic mean, the combinatorial structure is that of the Indian buffet process (IBP) introduced by Griffiths and Ghahramani [GG05]. By reinterpreting the beta process introduced by Hjort [Hjo90] as a measurable family of Dirichlet processes, we obtain a simple predictive rule for the general case, which can be thought of as a continuum of Blackwell-MacQueen urn schemes (or equivalently, one-parameter Hoppe urn schemes). The corresponding measurable family of Perman-Pitman-Yor processes leads to a continuum of two-parameter Hoppe urn schemes, whose ordinary component is the three-parameter IBP introduced by Teh and G\"or\"ur [TG09], which exhibits power-law behavior, as further studied by Broderick, Jordan, and Pitman [BJP12]. The idea extends to arbitrary measurable families of exchangeable partition probability functions and gives rise to generalizations of the beta process with matching buffet processes. Finally, in the same way that hierarchies of Dirichlet processes were given Chinese restaurant franchise representations by Teh, Jordan, Beal, and Blei [Teh+06], one can construct representations of sequences of Bernoulli processes directed by hierarchies of beta processes (and their generalizations) using the stochastic process we uncover.

Abstract:
We introduce a class of random graphs that we argue meets many of the desiderata one would demand of a model to serve as the foundation for a statistical analysis of real-world networks. The class of random graphs is defined by a probabilistic symmetry: invariance of the distribution of each graph to an arbitrary relabelings of its vertices. In particular, following Caron and Fox, we interpret a symmetric simple point process on $\mathbb{R}_+^2$ as the edge set of a random graph, and formalize the probabilistic symmetry as joint exchangeability of the point process. We give a representation theorem for the class of random graphs satisfying this symmetry via a straightforward specialization of Kallenberg's representation theorem for jointly exchangeable random measures on $\mathbb{R}_+^2$. The distribution of every such random graph is characterized by three (potentially random) components: a nonnegative real $I \in \mathbb{R}_+$, an integrable function $S: \mathbb{R}_+ \to \mathbb{R}_+$, and a symmetric measurable function $W: \mathbb{R}_+^2 \to [0,1]$ that satisfies several weak integrability conditions. We call the triple $(I,S,W)$ a graphex, in analogy to graphons, which characterize the (dense) exchangeable graphs on $\mathbb{N}$. Indeed, the model we introduce here contains the exchangeable graphs as a special case, as well as the "sparse exchangeable" model of Caron and Fox. We study the structure of these random graphs, and show that they can give rise to interesting structure, including sparse graph sequences. We give explicit equations for expectations of certain graph statistics, as well as the limiting degree distribution. We also show that certain families of graphexes give rise to random graphs that, asymptotically, contain an arbitrarily large fraction of the vertices in a single connected component.

Abstract:
The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays.

Abstract:
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of Bernoulli processes with a common beta process base measure, in which case the combinatorial structure is described by the Indian buffet process. Our results give a count analogue of the Indian buffet process, which we call a negative binomial Indian buffet process. As an intermediate step toward this goal, we provide a construction for the beta negative binomial process that avoids a representation of the underlying beta process base measure. We describe the key Markov kernels needed to use a NB-IBP representation in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm targeting a posterior distribution.

Abstract:
We investigate a class of feature allocation models that generalize the Indian buffet process and are parameterized by Gibbs-type random measures. Two existing classes are contained as special cases: the original two-parameter Indian buffet process, corresponding to the Dirichlet process, and the stable (or three-parameter) Indian buffet process, corresponding to the Pitman-Yor process. Asymptotic behavior of the Gibbs-type partitions, such as power laws holding for the number of latent clusters, translates into analogous characteristics for this class of Gibbs-type feature allocation models. Despite containing several different distinct subclasses, the properties of Gibbs-type partitions allow us to develop a black-box procedure for posterior inference within any subclass of models. Through numerical experiments, we compare and contrast a few of these subclasses and highlight the utility of varying power-law behaviors in the latent features.

Abstract:
We prove a computable version of de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable sequences of real random variables. As a consequence, exchangeable stochastic processes expressed in probabilistic functional programming languages can be automatically rewritten as procedures that do not modify non-local state. Along the way, we prove that a distribution on the unit interval is computable if and only if its moments are uniformly computable.

Abstract:
Data often comes in the form of an array or matrix. Matrix factorization techniques attempt to recover missing or corrupted entries by assuming that the matrix can be written as the product of two low-rank matrices. In other words, matrix factorization approximates the entries of the matrix by a simple, fixed function---namely, the inner product---acting on the latent feature vectors for the corresponding row and column. Here we consider replacing the inner product by an arbitrary function that we learn from the data at the same time as we learn the latent feature vectors. In particular, we replace the inner product by a multi-layer feed-forward neural network, and learn by alternating between optimizing the network for fixed latent features, and optimizing the latent features for a fixed network. The resulting approach---which we call neural network matrix factorization or NNMF, for short---dominates standard low-rank techniques on a suite of benchmark but is dominated by some recent proposals that take advantage of the graph features. Given the vast range of architectures, activation functions, regularizers, and optimization techniques that could be used within the NNMF framework, it seems likely the true potential of the approach has yet to be reached.

Abstract:
Originally designed for state-space models, Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are now routinely applied in the context of general-purpose Bayesian inference. Traditional analyses of SMC algorithms have focused on their application to estimating expectations with respect to intractable distributions such as those arising in Bayesian analysis. However, these algorithms can also be used to obtain approximate samples from a posterior distribution of interest. We investigate the asymptotic and non-asymptotic convergence rates of SMC from this sampling viewpoint. In particular, we study the expectation of the particle approximation that SMC produces as the number of particles tends to infinity. This "expected approximation" is equivalent to the law of a sample drawn from the SMC approximation. We give convergence rates of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the target and the expected approximation. Our results apply to both deterministic and adaptive resampling schemes. In the adaptive setting, we introduce a novel notion of effective sample size, the $\infty$-ESS, and show that controlling this quantity ensures stability of the SMC sampling algorithm. We also introduce an adaptive version of the conditional SMC proposal, which allows us to prove quantitative bounds for rates of convergence for adaptive versions of iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo Markov chains and associated adaptive particle Gibbs samplers.

Abstract:
The air transportation network, a fundamental component of critical infrastructure, is formed from a collection of individual air carriers, each one with a methodically designed and engineered network structure. We analyze the individual structures of the seven largest passenger carriers in the USA and find that networks with dense interconnectivity, as quantified by large k-cores for high values of k, are extremely resilient to both targeted removal of airports (nodes) and random removal of flight paths paths (edges). Such networks stay connected and incur minimal increase in an heuristic travel time despite removal of a majority of nodes or edges. Similar results are obtained for targeted removal based on either node degree or centrality. We introduce network rewiring schemes that boost resilience to different levels of perturbation while preserving total number of flight and gate requirements. Recent studies have focused on the asymptotic optimality of hub-and-spoke spatial networks under normal operating conditions, yet our results indicate that point-to-point architectures can be much more resilient to perturbations.